EU Energy Independence – A Roadmap to Ending Russian Energy Dependency

Stop crude imports now; implement an immediate diversification push for gas, LNG, and cross-border interconnections with hard deadlines and penalties for non-compliance. This concrete action anchors the discussion and signals the momentum needed, when information from the Commission becomes available to support decisions.

The path includes a staged increase of regasification capacity by 50 cubic bcm and the addition of five cross-border corridors, enabling flows from multiple sources. By 2030, aim for 40-60% of imports via diversified routes, with LNG accounting for about 15% of gas supply; those shifts require roughly euros 300-350 billion of investment, with contributions from member states and the private sector. Much of the funding should target storage, port terminals, and new pipelines. The Commission will publish information monthly on volumes, origin, and capacity utilization, which will help those plans stay on track. Addition of new storage capacity and terminal upgrades will be essential.

Governance and enforcement: The Commission will set binding milestones for upgrades, with penalties for non-compliance; those who fail to deliver will face consequences. No single actor can trump the EU’s diversification plans, and transparency rests on quarterly information of imports and storage–information that those involved must contribute to and publish. Those steps add discipline to the process and help those participants to track progress against the point of the plan.

Demand-side and industry actions: Demand-side measures will intensify; households should accelerate efficiency upgrades and opt for dynamic tariffs that reflect real-time supply, while industry should implement demand-response measures and switch from crude fuels when feasible. The addition of substitutes and smarter storage will reduce cyclic price spikes. dont rely on a single supplier; instead, diversify the portfolio across liquid fuels and electricity sources. Those measures will heavily reduce exposure and stop price shocks, continuing the momentum across markets.

Progress and accountability: As the Commission said, the plan will be updated quarterly; information on progress and obstacles will be published; those documents will indicate when to adjust plans; the plan’s demand-supply balance will determine the pace; euros will underpin investments in storage and terminals. Stakeholders are saying these steps will matter, and ongoing collaboration from those who contribute to the effort will keep the program on track.

Roadmap and Key Metrics: Ending Europe’s Russian Energy Dependency

Recommendation: start phasing out russian fuel immediately by binding a plan to replace supply with LNG imports, enhanced interconnectors, and rapid deployment of renewables, financed partly by tariffs on new contracts and accelerated storage. France and other allies should sign an agreement with clear terms and milestones to speed diversification.

Key metrics include accounting of the current import mix (non-russian share), monthly LNG cargo inflows, added regas capacity, number of cross-border interconnectors, volume displaced from crude and gas to alternatives, tariff revenues allocated to diversification, states and countries joining the plan, and time-to-milestones measured in months; target: reduce russian share by a defined percentage and achieve million tonnes of crude displaced.

Phasing plan: Phase 0-12 months: stop new purchases from russian suppliers; renegotiate or terminate existing deals where possible; bring 2-3 regas terminals online; upgrade grid to handle 20-30 bcm/year more throughput; align with EU states and france on terms; set up contingency stocks; ensure social safeguards while the shift takes place.

Risk and economics: tariffs should dissuade new purchases; offset household impacts with targeted supports; guarantee transition bonds; ensure allies and states commit to joint procurement to damp price spikes; monitor potential wars or geopolitical tensions; keep track of who says what and adjust the plan if they demand; rely on fossil replacements while maintaining reliability.

Governance: establish an implementation group with representatives from states, agencies, and allies; publish monthly accounting of supply mix, volumes displaced, and progress toward milestones; require independent verification; include a final review and revised terms.

Current Dependency Snapshot: Russia’s share of EU oil and gas by country and fuel

Need to curb exposure within months: diversify supplier bases, expand LNG intake from allies, and renegotiate crude and gas contracts to shorter, more transparent terms. Then, build swing capacity and storage buffers, and apply penalties for under-performance. Plans to shift away from russias supply sources are already under way, supported by Moscow’s sanctions and time constraints, and those moves time the market to reduce risk. The question remains whether day-by-day market actions can keep pace with policy steps.

Germany: russias crude share accounted for roughly 18–22% of crude arrivals in 2024; russias gas share represented about 28–35% of imports. The account fell from year to year as allies expanded LNG uptake and pipeline diversification. Those shifts affected contracts and pricing, with bought volumes from non-russias suppliers rising and euros-based pricing gaining traction. White-listed suppliers and penalties for non-compliance helped steer the flow, while time-sensitive adjustments shaped the current mix. Moscow remains a factor, but the focus is on reducing exposure.

Italy: crude from russias made up roughly 20–25% of total imports; gas from russias about 14–20%. Those shares fell as new LNG regimens and diversified routes boosted supply from allies. Bought volumes from non-russias suppliers increased; contracts were reshaped to shorter terms with more flexible pricing in euros.

France: crude from russias about 15–20%; gas from russias around 8–12%. Shares declined as sanctions and policy shifts redirected flows toward North Africa and the Middle East. Term contracts were adjusted, and allies supported a broader import mix. This resilience supports the steel sector and other heavy industries by dampening price volatility.

Netherlands: crude from russias roughly 6–9%; gas from russias about 2–5%. The country reduced exposure amid reforms and the rise of LNG receiving capacity, outside the traditional pipeline corridor. The move provided more room to renegotiate terms with non-russias suppliers.

Poland: gas from russias around 30–40% in 2023, fell to 8–20% in 2024; crude share roughly 8–12%. A rapid shift to LNG and supplies from allies, with substantial policy support and penalties for poor delivery, drove this change. Moscow remains a factor, but diversified routes and storage help time the risk.

Spain: crude from russias about 7–12%; gas from russias around 5–8%. Shares fell as Spain leaned on North Africa and LNG, supported by euro-denominated pricing and flexible contracts.

EU snapshot: total russias crude imports share fell from about 20–25% in 2021 to 12–18% in 2024; gas reliance fell from 28–40% to 15–25%. Amid time, the question is whether these declines persist month by month under sanctions and external pressures. Outside the core corridors, plans to diversify further with allies and penalties for non-compliance can accelerate the shift. The Moscow factor cannot be ignored, but the decision to broaden supplier support benefits the steel sector and other industries by reducing price volatility and improving long-term certainty.

Near-Term Diversification Targets: 2025–2027 milestones and triggers

Recommendation: commit to a phased diversification plan for 2025–2027 with five binding triggers tied to flows, storage and financing. Target non-Russia gas flows to 15–20 bcm/year by 2026, add 5 bcm of storage capacity (about 5 billion cubic meters), and secure 10–12 bcm/year of LNG imports, financed in euros, with a robust accounting framework and quarterly reviews.

By 2025, france officials and partners in slovakia and hungary should align on phasing, including ukraine to ensure fuel flows through alternative routes. The plan, which is called a resilience package, would set a detailed upgrade schedule for pipelines and terminals and require support from national budgets. The goal is to reduce dependence on a single corridor and to provide transparent accounting of progress.

2026 milestones: complete two cross-border interconnections to ease flows, lift LNG imports to 8–12 bcm/year, and add 2–3 bcm of storage. Publish a mid-year report showing the share of imports from non-Russia sources (target around 40–50%). This would help reduce russia dependency and expand non-Russia flows. As part of the plan, a clear governance layer and euros funding lines approved by the participating states.

By 2027, non-Russia flows should reach 60–70% of total intake, supported by 3–4 new supply sources and continued phasing improvements. france, slovakia, hungary, and ukraine would coordinate to keep fuel flows more resilient, with officials saying the diversification drive is committed and would deliver a cleaner, cheaper mix of supplies. everything called a robust, affordable plan that avoids dependence on a single route and cannot be relied on alone.

Diversification Pathways: LNG, renewables, and alternative suppliers

Invest now in LNG import capacity, accelerate renewables deployment, and secure diversified suppliers to stabilize flows amid volatility; the latest google account points to price swings, and they will come more pronounced in year ahead; lock in long-term terms with allies to cushion costs without exposing single-channel risks.

Three actionable tracks address near-term disruptions and longer-term resilience: LNG, renewables, and diversified suppliers. LNG upgrades should target 25–40 bcm/year additional regas capacity by 2027 and 60–90 bcm/year total by 2030, with 3–4 new terminals and expanded pipelines. France and Hungary can anchor cross-border capacity enhancements, while Ukraine remains a key transit node; more routes will come under consideration to improve flows. Renewables must push 60–80 GW of new capacity by 2030, including 25–35 GW solar and 25–40 GW wind, supported by grid reinforcements, storage, and cross-border auctions with states to stabilise prices over time. Diversified suppliers and routes should pursue 4–6 new links delivering 20–30 bcm/year additional flows, building corridors across central Europe, and ensuring contractual options with allies; they should also consider access to nickel and other chemical feedstocks to keep industrial output steady. Diversification reduces russias leverage and improves resilience.

To strengthen resilience, combine policy with procurements documented in white papers, protect privacy in data-sharing, and establish funding streams that can scale in the year ahead; France and Hungary can align on shared standards and timelines, while Ukraine remains a key transit node. They will require careful terms, inclusive of public-private funding, and ongoing review to adapt to changing flows; 1 million households can benefit from improved reliability, time-to-market improvements, and reduced costs, even as imposing constraints on single-route dependence must be avoided.

Infrastructure Readiness: pipelines, LNG terminals, storage, and interconnections

Immediate actions: expand cross-border pipelines, add LNG entry points, and boost storage to secure flows during peak demand. Saying this requires a time-bound plan with dedicated funding and transparent accounting; then progress should be measured against concrete milestones. Ukraine’s role in regional coordination amid volatility is central to this effort.

• Pipelines and Druzhba corridor: upgrade at least two key cross-border interconnectors with Poland and Slovakia to enable higher throughput, and restore Druzhba capacity to reduce dependence on a single route. This approach aims to increase flows by a latest-available target of 20–30% by 2026, while maintaining route flexibility. Officials refer to this as a practical hedge against disruption, with maintenance windows scheduled in the shoulder seasons to avoid outages. Within this framework, outside buyers and national utilities should coordinate long-term contracts to smooth demand and stop sudden contractions in supply.
• LNG terminals and regasification: commission two new entry points (FSRU or onshore) in strategic hubs to lift regas capacity to the 25–40 bcm/year range by 2027. Funding should combine public capital, EU instruments, and private participation, with a clear accounting trail for capacity bookings. As markets increasingly rely on natural gas, these terminals will diversify sources and align with imports from diverse suppliers, reducing time-to-market for new flows.
• Storage capacity: raise strategic reserves to cover 60 days of winter demand and expand decentralized storage to 15–25% of annual consumption. This improves resilience during short-term outages and in the face of weather-driven spikes. Maintenance schedules should be published, and inventory accounting updated monthly to reflect true availability for buyers and authorities alike.
• Interconnections and market coordination: implement four new cross-border interconnectors across Central and Southeast corridors and adopt synchronized market coupling to minimize congestion. This will help ensure natural gas can move where it is most needed, regardless of the origin, while reducing the latency between decision and response as flows respond to real-time signals. Referring to current conditions, this approach strengthens supply security for each country and its commercial entities, including medium-sized buyers who increasingly rely on imports.
• Funding and governance: secure a mix of public funds, EU support, and private capital, with explicit milestones and independent reporting. Committees should oversee performance, publish quarterly accounting on throughput, storage levels, and interconnector utilization, and publish annual evaluations to inform future decisions. Officials emphasize that transparent budgeting and accountability are worth the cost when security of supply is at stake.
• Timelines and milestones: 2025–2026: upgrade Druzhba-related facilities, activate first new interconnector pair, and bring 1–2 LNG entry points online. 2026–2027: complete second LNG terminal and finalize storage expansion. 2027–2028: achieve full regional interconnection efficiency and demonstrate stable, diversified import flows through multiple routes. This sequence supports a steady, observable increase in committed capacity and flows, even as markets adapt to evolving demand.

Decision-makers should monitor everything through a central dashboard that tracks capacity utilization, outages, imports composition, and regional flow patterns. Amid market volatility, the emphasis remains on keeping flows steady, expanding outside of traditional routes, and ensuring that buyers can rely on diversified, predictable supplies.

Policy Toolkit and Consumer Protection: tariffs, subsidies, and price safeguards

Recommendation: Implement a phased tariff on crude and liquified gas imports, starting at 15% and moving to 0% over a 12-week phasing schedule, with targeted subsidies for buyers most in need. Tariff revenue finances price safeguards and a robust information and promotion program to help households adopt power-saving measures.

Subsidies and price safeguards: Target subsidies to cover up to 40% of price increases for the lowest-income buyers during the phasing period; activate automatic price safeguards if wholesale prices spike above a pre-set threshold. Revenue is recycled into efficiency programs, and terms are aligned through an agreement with beijing and other allies in officials’ discussions to minimize spillovers and avoid actions that could undermine market stability or trigger wars.

Transparency and monitoring: Publish weekly data on imports, prices, and subsidy disbursement; provide information and price alerts to buyers. The latest data said russias crude deliveries fell heavily in recent weeks, underscoring the need to diversify away from russia and reduce exposure to moscow-based suppliers. Ongoing updates will be accessible via public dashboards and complemented by beijing-led coordination with officials.

Diversification and diplomacy: That introduce new procurement routes, including LNG from allied producers, and deepen ties with Ukraine to secure alternative flows, reducing dependence on russias and Moscow-origin shipments. Officials say an agreement on terms with allies supports stable pricing and mitigates the risk of imposing sanctions that could escalate tensions.

Implementation and accountability: Set milestones and metrics, with a formal review after the initial 6 weeks to adjust tariffs, subsidies, and price safeguards. Require disclosure from suppliers about volumes bought, maintain a public audit trail, and use data–along with Google trends–to refine information campaigns and promotion efforts aimed at improving consumer choices and market resilience.