August 2025 Trucking Trends: U.S. Sees Tonnage Surge as Canadian Spot Market Slows

Mixed Signals in North American Trucking Markets

August 2025 brought a tale of two markets in North America’s trucking industry. While the U.S. for-hire truck tonnage climbed to levels not seen since December 2023, the Canadian spot market showed signs of sluggishness. This divergence paints an intriguing picture for freight movement and logistics managers eyeing cross-border operations.

U.S. Truck Tonnage Edges Upward

Data z American Trucking Associations (ATA) highlighted an encouraging uptick in U.S. for-hire truck tonnage, which increased by approximately 0.9% in August following a 1.1% rise in July. This improvement pushed tonnage to its highest point since December 2023, signaling a potential rebound after a period of uncertainty.

However, it’s not all sunshine. According to ATA’s chief economist Bob Costello, while the end of summer showed promise, factors such as fluctuating tariffs, a softened housing market, and a cooling labor market create caution for predicting a strong holiday season freight rebound. Manufacturing trends leant towards deceleration too, indicating potential headwinds for shipment volume growth.

Year-to-date, the tonnage barely inched up by 0.1% compared to last year, suggesting that despite the recent gains, the trucking market remains in cautious territory.

Table: U.S. Truck Tonnage Monthly Changes (2025)

Canadian Spot Market Dips Significantly

Across the border, August was a quiet month for spot freight in Canada. Reports from Loadlink Technologies showed a sharp 14% drop in load postings compared to July, with year-over-year numbers down by 40%. Both domestic and cross-border freight fell, with southbound loads declining 8% and Canadian inbound ones slipping 20% month-over-month.

Domestic shipments didn’t fare better, dropping by 13%, pushing the truck-to-load ratio higher to 4.20 trucks chasing each available load—a 10% rise since July and a 37% jump year-over-year. This escalation points to market softness, where supply outpaces demand and trucks might stay parked longer than operators like.

Trade Tariffs Continue to Cast a Shadow

The freight market’s fragile recovery faces ongoing challenges linked to trade tariffs. According to ACT Research’s Freight Forecast, pre-tariff equipment hoarding and sustained volume weakness have prevented the market from tightening, with many adverse tariff effects still looming.

Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president, notes that as tariff repercussions unfold over coming months, cautious freight demand is expected to persist. Container shipping is predicted to take a notable hit, especially affecting intermodal surface freight operations.

Interestingly, private trucking fleets that saw major expansions from 2022 to 2024 are now pulling back capacity, with planned Class 8 tractor production dropping over 30% from the first half to the second half of the year. This contraction may eventually help balance supply and foster a recovery in the for-hire market.

Gradual Improvement in Trucking Conditions

On the brighter side, the Trucking Conditions Index from FTR showed slight improvement in July, moving from -1.83 in June to -1.03. While still indicating challenging market conditions, this shift suggests the worst might be behind the industry—or at least, there’s some softening of the decline.

Capacity pressures remain, fueled by rising truck insurance costs and limits on foreign drivers. Even though freight volumes and rates are expected to remain tame, preliminary employment data hint at a tighter truck capacity than previously believed. All told, the freight market could be poised for an uptick in activity.

Spot Market Demand Climbs, but Rates Falter

Data from Truckstop.com reveals a curious trend in the U.S. spot market for the week ending September 19: load postings remain very strong, especially for flatbed freight, but rates continue to soften. Dry van and refrigerated spot rates fell for the third week running, and flatbed rates have declined in 10 of the last 11 weeks, mirroring trends from the previous year.

Regions showing robust demand include the West Coast and Southeast, with the Market Demand Index (MDI) hitting 96.4, the best showing since May’s International Roadcheck event. The strength was primarily driven by flatbed and dry van categories. This scenario points to an interesting tug-of-war where demand pushes up, but oversupplied capacity keeps rates in check.

What Does This Mean for Logistics and Freight Forwarding?

The divergent trends between the U.S. and Canadian markets underline the complex dynamics trucking logistics face in 2025. For shippers, freight forwarders, and logistics planners, these fluctuations emphasize the need for adaptive strategies, especially for cross-border movement.

Canada’s spot market softness means longer wait times and potentially higher costs for last-minute or urgent shipments, while the modest tonnage gains in the U.S. could signal some relief in capacity shortages. Navigating tariff impacts and anticipating manufacturing slowdowns require careful foresight to avoid hiccups in freight scheduling and delivery times.

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Summary and Forecast

In the final analysis, while the U.S. trucking industry saw a modest increase in tonnage levels during August 2025, Canada’s spot market languished under decreased load volumes and higher truck-to-load ratios. Trade tariffs and the ongoing ripple effects from global economic shifts continue to put a brake on a strong market-wide recovery.

Still, improvements in trucking conditions and spot market demand hold a silver lining, suggesting the freight hauling industry might slowly steer back toward better days. For logistics professionals, remaining agile and leveraging comprehensive platforms for freight, shipment management, and transport booking will be critical in this evolving environment.

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Looking ahead, these trucking trends may not drastically reshape global logistics overnight but remain highly relevant to North American freight operations and those interacting with these markets. GetTransport.com keeps pace with such developments, offering customers a streamlined gateway to efficient and competitively priced transport services. Start planning your next delivery and secure your cargo with ease through GetTransport.com.