Early 2026 air cargo stabilisation as Asia-Pacific, CSA and MESA support volume recovery

Worldwide chargeable weight rose by +1% in week 4 (19–25 January 2026), powered by a +2% weekly increase from Asia‑Pacific origins and a +10% spike from Central & South America (CSA), even as severe winter storms knocked North America volumes down by -9% week‑on‑week.

Weekly air cargo snapshot: numbers that matter

After the seasonal year‑end dip, global air cargo demand and spot rates largely stabilised in late January 2026. On a week‑on‑week basis, average global spot rates recovered by +2% to US$2.43/kg, though year‑on‑year (YoY) rates remain slightly lower (about -1% YoY) as capacity continues to outpace demand (+6% YoY capacity growth).

Regional drivers and seasonal forces

Asien-Pazifik demand picked up in southern China as forwarders positioned cargo ahead of the Lunar New Year (LNY) period. Spot rates from southern China climbed sharply—up +6% WoW to the US (US$4.02/kg) and +7% to Europe (US$3.80/kg)—while northern China showed little pre‑LNY peaking. The result: lane‑specific tightening where capacity is finite and demand builds.

CSA benefited from flower exports ramping toward Valentine’s Day, lifting tonnages notably from countries in Central and South America and Kenya. Perishable supply chains created short‑term demand spikes for secure, temperature‑controlled capacity.

MESA continues its multi‑month run of YoY growth. Ex‑MESA tonnages rose +10% YoY in week 4, with India a standout origin despite higher tariffs imposed late in 2025. That trend reinforces the region’s growing role in global air freight flows beyond seasonal hiccups.

Capacity vs demand: why rates aren’t running away

Despite positive tonnage moves, the broader story is that aggregate capacity growth (+6% YoY) still exceeds demand growth (+3% YoY for week 4), which caps upward pressure on average rates. In plain terms: more available belly and freighter space than strictly needed keeps rates under a lid even when pockets of demand tighten. That’s a classic supply‑and‑demand tango—plenty of partners, but not everyone’s dancing in time.

Operational disruptions — weather, geopolitics and chokepoints

Severe winter storms in the US and western Canada caused thousands of cancellations, with cargo tonnages plummeting as much as -19% from some US regions. At the same time, heightened tensions in parts of the Middle East created further flight disruptions. These operational issues are the blunt tools that can flip a soft market into a tight one overnight for specific lanes and products, particularly perishables and time‑sensitive shipments.

• Perishables and express cargo remain most sensitive to short‑term capacity shocks.
• Shippers with flexible routing and earlier bookings fared better during week 4, highlighting the value of freight planning.
• Forwarders reported tighter capacity from southern China, Vietnam and Taiwan to certain US gateways, which could lift spot rates in week 5.

Spot vs contract dynamics

Spot rates showed a modest WoW recovery, but contract rates and annual agreements will lag these moves. For logistics planners, that means short‑term opportunities to secure capacity via spot if timing is right, while longer‑term contracts remain the hedge against volatility.

What this means for logistics and shippers

From the warehouse to the end customer, the practical effects are tangible. Expect intermittent lane‑specific Beförderung and dispatch headaches, a premium for last‑minute space on key origins, and stronger demand for refrigerated handling when flower and food shipments surge. Carriers and freight forwarders that can offer agility—rerouting, consolidations, and reliable capacity—will outcompete those that cannot.

Anastasiya Simsek

Key takeaways for logistics teams

Here are quick, actionable items logistics managers should keep on their radar:

• Prioritise bookings from southern China and MESA lanes as pre‑LNY demand tightens.
• Hedge perishable shipments with early bookings and trusted refrigerated handlers.
• Monitor weather and geopolitical alerts to anticipate sudden capacity shocks.
• Use a mix of spot and contract strategies to balance cost and reliability.
• Consider multi‑modal options where air capacity becomes prohibitively expensive.

I once had a customer call on a Monday asking for 10 pallets of roses to be on a Paris dock by Wednesday—long story short, we had to chase planes, jump trucks and even a ferry leg. That’s the reality: when demand spikes near holiday dates, logistics becomes creative problem‑solving rather than just numbers on a spreadsheet. As the saying goes, “plan for the best, prepare for the worst.”

Highlights: early 2026 shows stabilised global air cargo volumes with regional pockets of strength in Asien-Pazifik, CSA and MESA. Severe North American weather created notable week‑on‑week declines, while capacity growth continues to moderate upward pressure on average rates. Even the best reviews and the most honest feedback can’t truly replace hands‑on experience—on GetTransport.com, you can order your cargo transportation at the best prices globally at reasonable prices. This empowers you to make the most informed decision without unnecessary expenses or disappointments. Emphasising the platform’s transparency and convenience, you gain access to wide choices, competitive pricing, and practical tools to compare freight options—Book now GetTransport.com.com

In summary, the early 2026 air cargo picture is one of cautious recovery: Fracht volumes are stabilising, spot Preise are slowly clawing back, and capacity growth still tempers rate upside. Regional drivers—pre‑LNY moves in Asia‑Pacific, flower exports from CSA, and sustained growth from MESA—will shape lane‑level price and capacity dynamics in the coming weeks. For logistics teams focused on freight, shipment planning, shipping and forwarding, the lesson is clear: stay flexible, diversify routing options, and lock in reliable partners early. Platforms like GetTransport.com align with these needs by simplifying transport booking, offering affordable global solutions for office and home moves, bulky goods, vehicles and palletised cargo, and helping to secure reliable delivery and distribution with less fuss.