Rotes Meer Update – Anhaltende Angriffe und Neuausrichtung der Containerallianzen

Recommendation: review contingency plans now and adjust voyage planning accordingly. The Red Sea faces ongoing threats as attacks continue to target commercial traffic, and some vessels divert to alternative routes. Initially, operators expected a brief spike, but the ongoing trend has kept risk levels elevated and requires updated risk scoring, enhanced crew training, and tightened security procedures.

In the current cycle, incident cadence has influenced schedule planning. Several attacks have occurred near the Bab el-Mandeb and along the southern corridor, keeping speed and protection as top priorities. The trend shows that risk exposure remains, and operators are edging toward more conservative routing while still keeping alternate corridors in play. Some fleets have adjusted watch routines and increased convoy coordination, though not all routes can be serviced with the same cadence.

A reshuffle among container alliances is under way. Maersk and partners formed a broader network with an agreement aimed at maintaining complete coverage across key lanes. The new structure is edging capacity across vessels und other operators, and it will require tight coordination to keep every port call serviced. Initially, speculation centered on how routes would be prioritized, but the plan is now anchored by published schedules.

For shippers and operators, the path is clear: diversify origin-destination pairs, review the existing agreement terms with carriers and insurers, and adjust risk premiums. Insurance teams should validate cover for ongoing detours and longer voyage times, while ops teams evaluate port calls and crew rotations to minimize exposure. Going deeper, consider alternative hubs like Djibouti oder Jeddah to reduce dwell time in high-risk zones; ensure vessels are serviced with updated anti-piracy and navigation procedures. Monitor the coalition’s updates and align procurement with a longer horizon plan to keep throughput steady even as the reshuffle continues.

In practice, ongoing risk analytics should drive quarterly reviews of routing, with key metrics tracked: number of close-quarters incidents, time-to-service after port calls, and vessel availability in major corridors. The Red Sea update signals that operators must adapt to a world where a mix of Maersk-led and partner schedules shapes the global network; staying ahead means acting on real-time data, coordinating with charterers, and maintaining flexibility across routes and ports.

Practical Implications for Operators and Shippers

Start with a clear contingency plan for the Red Sea corridor that prioritizes how to allocate space for priority cargo, alternative routes, and synchronized port calls to minimize gaps between sailings.

Impacts on rate and share are evident in weeks of disruption, with times extending as carriers adjust; data show rate increases across affected lanes and a measurable shift in vessel share toward alternative hubs, which raises overall logistics costs for many shippers.

An alliance formed earlier is reshuffling routes, which seeks greater cooperation among operators to stabilize schedules and protect service levels for customers seeking predictable transit times.

Operational steps for shippers include early bookings, prioritizing essential cargo, allocating capacity for critical lanes, and using intermodal options with lorry to move cargo inland when ocean connectivity tightens. These moves reduce dwell times and improve predictability for downstream customers.

Advisory updates from authorities provide a framework to monitor security and cargo integrity; stay aligned with these advisories, harmonize reporting, and share vessel lists and timings across partners to optimize utilization of available capacity.

Establish weekly reviews to track key metrics such as time in port, vessel utilization, and cargo readiness; increasing cooperation among carriers and shippers will help reallocate shared resources, again lowering risk during peak disruption weeks.

Recent Red Sea Attacks: timeline, affected routes, and security measures

Coordinate a joint security plan now across alliance members and implement a daily threat intel feed to reduce risk for shuttles and tankers like Alejandra. We know that layered security reduces exposure and keeps customers informed. The plan should be action-oriented, with clear timeframes and defined responsibilities.

Timeline of recent incidents and responses:

1. Over the years, attacks concentrated in the central Red Sea and near Bab al-Mandab, with several events launched in waves. Official announcements from the alliance highlighted a shift toward coordinated escorts and route adjustments. The time between incidents varied, prompting ongoing communications among members.
2. January 2024 marked a spike: three publicly reported events, including a near-miss involving a tanker in the northern approaches. Many operators sought guidance from the alliance and adjusted schedules accordingly. The vessel Alejandra was among those that reported deviations and subsequent rerouting to safer segments.
3. Mid-2024 to early 2025 saw a decrease in the incident rate as new security measures rolled out. Officials communicated that patrols, threat intelligence sharing, and enhanced vessel protections contributed to the shift. Ships continued operations with heightened vigilance and adherence to updated procedures.

Affected routes and corridors:

• Northern Red Sea approaches and the Bab al-Mandab crossing, a primary chokepoint for tanker and container traffic.
• Suez Canal corridor and southern lanes toward Saudi ports, including routes toward Jeddah and the Aqaba–Eilat region.
• High-traffic transfer zones at anchorages and during port transits where crew shuttles operate, which saw increased security notices.
• Interchanges between regional fleets and port authorities, where bridge communications helped maintain schedules.
• Major carriers such as Maersk reported adjusting calls to safer slots to reduce exposure while preserving service levels.

Security measures and recommendations:

• Establish a shared risk picture across the alliance with ongoing updates and threshold actions, including edging patrols and revised routes in high-risk segments where needed.
• Increase naval and private security patrols along the Bab al-Mandab and adjacent corridors, focusing on time-critical lanes and high-traffic periods.
• Standardize incident reporting and communications; officially announce any changes through established channels to ensure customers and partners stay informed.
• Adopt enhanced vessel protection for tankers and high-risk ships, including hull hardening, controlled speeds in risk zones, and use of guards where permitted.
• Coordinate with shuttles and port calls to minimize dwell times and improve berth scheduling; allocate dedicated slots for high-risk ships and ensure bridge teams maintain continuous operations center contact.
• Share best practices for crew safety, watch routines, and drills; many operators, including Maersk, will publish updated guidelines for crews and on-shore teams.
• Improve cargo security with measured approaches: allocate more resources to secure handling, loading, and unloading; provide customers with accurate tracking and ETA information.
• Maintain clear communications with suppliers and customers about routes and security measures to avoid unnecessary disruption.
• Review threat levels regularly and adjust response times based on intelligence; set measurable targets for time-to-respond and mitigation efforts.

Container alliance reshuffle: key players, realignment moves, and schedule

Recommendation: Publish updated service commitments and formal agreements to cap re-shuffling risk. A published framework for port calls, with a clear asia-us schedule, reduces disruption and gives shippers a reliable benchmark. Ensure every alliance publishes cadence across chains and ports, so customers can plan with confidence.

The key players are now organized into two clusters: 2M led by Maersk and MSC, and THE Alliance led by Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, and OOCL. In the latest re-shuffling, 2M launched a new straight trans-Pacific loop, calling at Busan, Shanghai, and Los Angeles, also expanding calls at Qingdao and Oakland. Officially, the moves were announced without fanfare, but some analysts frame them as a defensive idea to balance capacity across chains and reduce reliance on a single route. The Ocean Alliance adjusted its port calls to add more calls in Asia and the Red Sea corridor, improving resilience across their alliances and offering closer alignment to customer demand.

Schedule details to monitor: published cadences show a six-week cycle for Asia-US services, with calls at key ports like Shanghai, Busan, Singapore, Port Said, and Los Angeles. A dedicated Asia-US service launched by a CMA CGM–COSCO venture is officially in rotation, with waves designed to avoid peak congestion and maintain service levels over the next quarter. This re-shuffling across chains aims to keep trade moving toward the Suez corridor, while some rotations are timed to align with advisories that warn of potential delays at sensitive nodes along the port chain.

Impacts and actions: the reshuffle should stabilize some lanes while tightening others, so carriers publish schedules and remain transparent about slot availability. Ports in Asia and the US benefit from steadier service, whereas the Red Sea corridor faces higher risk during security advisories. To protect continuity, shippers should lock in agreements with carriers offering predictable service, monitor updates, and stay closer to the primary routes that power trade, while remaining flexible to alternative routings when conditions change.

Hapag-Lloyd CEO on Gemini expansion: rationale, risks, and customer impact

Recommendation: roll out Gemini expansion in three stages: pilot on two core corridors, scale to four more routes within 12 months, then integrate across the wider network. This approach preserves service levels while controlling risk and supports continued growth. Set concrete targets: containers handled on Gemini lanes up 12–15% in year one, time in port reduced by 5–8%, and published monthly results for customers and chain members. If delays exceed a threshold, adjust the pace and reallocate capacity from non-Gemini lanes. Assign dedicated shuttles and teams to monitor operations, and ensure both sides of the chain have clear expectations that align with the Gemini timeline. This plan gives time to address issues, having built in contingency without sacrificing longer-term gains.

Rationale and risk: Gemini expands capacity beyond current routes, delivering bigger throughput and more frequent shuttles. The plan aims to meet growing demand and to reduce chain fragility. Without alliances, the integration becomes harder and gains may be diluted; with alliances, they can be combined across networks. A maffei model suggests that the combined scheduling and terminal efficiency gains could lift customer service levels in the 18-month horizon. If port congestion returns, the benefits could decline – so we will rely on data-driven slot management, fixed berth windows, and cross-docking to stabilize performance. Published benchmarks will guide adjustments and keep all members informed.

Customer impact: Time yields higher reliability and more predictable schedules as Gemini scales. In the first year, published estimates show core-lane transit times down 5–10% and dwell times reduced by 8–12%, supported by bigger capacity and more frequent shuttles. They will experience fewer delays and a smoother handoff across the chain, which lowers the need for expedited shipments. This reduces impacts on costs and reliability for their shipments. For members, the combined network offers a simpler, more transparent flow, while those having multiple containers benefit from synchronized schedules. To maximize outcomes, align planning with slot releases, maintain longer planning horizons, and keep open lines with customers to secure priority slots when needed. The result is a steady, ongoing improvement that their shipments move through the Gemini network with greater reliability across containers and the chain. This will again reduce the need for expedited shipments.

FMC approval: scope, expected benefits, and performance obligations of the Maersk–Hapag-Lloyd alliance

Recommendation: approve a tightly defined scope with enforceable metrics, transparent reporting, and governance mechanisms that guard competition while enabling smoother operations.

Scope and coverage

• Limit the arrangement to core mainline services on high-volume lanes, with clear port-call patterns and service frequencies published in advance.
• Guarantee non-discriminatory access to capacity on shared routes for eligible partners and clients, preventing preferential treatment for any single carrier.
• Ban unilateral changes to schedules or capacity allocations without FMC notice and outside approved contingency plans.
• Prohibit sharing of sensitive pricing information beyond what is required for coordination of schedules and capacity planning.
• Mandate annual scope review and sunset provisions to ensure alignment with market dynamics.

Expected benefits

• Increased reliability and predictability of sailings, reducing variability in transit times for clients.
• Better network efficiency through coordinated vessel utilisation and consolidated maintenance windows.
• Stronger resilience to disruptions via joint contingency playbooks and rapid-response workflows.
• Enhanced visibility for clients through standardized performance updates and public dashboards.
• Potential cost efficiencies from harmonised schedules and shared asset usage, without compromising competitive choices.

Performance obligations and monitoring

1. On-time performance targets for core lanes, with monthly reporting and quarterly deep-dive reviews by independent monitors.
2. Schedule integrity metrics capturing planned versus actual arrival/departure times and dwell durations at key hubs.
3. Capacity and service-level commitments, including minimum slot availability for pre-booked freight and equitable handling across partners.
4. Data governance and privacy safeguards, ensuring compliant sharing of scheduling data while protecting proprietary information.
5. Clear dispute-resolution steps and audit rights to verify compliance with obligations and reporting.
6. Transition plan with phased milestones and a 12-month review cycle to assess outcomes and recalibrate targets.

Impact considerations

Regulators should weigh client experience improvements against any potential slowdown in competition. When the framework is executed, the market gains steadier service along with better forecast accuracy, while standard governance prevents price coordination or service distortions.

FMC halt: triggers, timeline, and contingency planning for carriers and customers

Act now: lock in backup capacity and publish a precise advisory for customers with concrete options. Set up two parallel paths: diversify space with multiple carriers, including maersk, and re-time shipments to align with revised port calls and bridge times.

Triggers to monitor include an officially announced FMC halt, an advisory for affected lanes, and a shift in demand that would tighten vessel levels. Maersk spoke earlier about redeployments to expand capacity; that case will depend on how the trade trend develops and port development alongside policy updates. Again, keep plans flexible and maintain a longer planning horizon to weather impacts.

Timeline snapshot: Weeks drive the schedule. Week 0: halt announced; Week 1-2: contingency blocks finalize and schedules updated; Week 2-4: customer communications and revised ETA flows; Week 4-6: stability returns as capacity and port operations normalize.

Contingency actions by scenario are shown in the table.

Whether disruption extends or remains modest, the framework should stay in place for further weeks. This approach aims to preserve stability, keep vessels moving, and support carrier demand while aligning customer expectations with reality.