Freight Shortage 2025 – What’s Behind the Crisis and Its Global Impact

Lock in term contracts; leasing arrangements with a diversified mix of carriers immediately to stabilize pricing, maintain ship availability within tight markets.

Contributors include a challenging downturn in capacity within key corridors; owner-operators pulling back, leasing options tightening, ship availability remaining tight.

Tariffs; government policy shifts ripple through cross-border trade, increasing costs, reshaping demands for commercial shippers.

news from supply chains highlights concern across suppliers, retailers; even drug distribution feels impact as capacity gaps affect availability for critical goods, medicines; consumers face price pressure.

Growth remains uncertain; higher degree of volatility complicates forecasting for retailers, manufacturers, logistics operators.

Expectations for growth in worldwide demand remain sensitive; producers adjust pricing to a higher degree, shifting sourcing toward nearshoring, regional hubs; diversified lanes help dampen risk from tariff shocks, weather disruptions. Without policy action, conditions could get worse.

Practical steps for organizations include blending modal strategies; expanding near-port storage; enhancing real-time tracking; building stronger collaboration with owner-operators, leasing partners reduces exposure, playing a larger role in risk mitigation across corridors.

Truck Capacity Shortage: Key Drivers and Practical Consequences

Recommendation: diversify capacity sources to stabilize throughput; lock long-term partnerships with carriers; create flexible shift patterns; build regional hubs in north markets; align leadership with practical targets. Need: stay ahead by turning insight into concrete actions.

Key drivers include cyclical demand; persistent labour scarcity; high equipment costs; excess idle capacity during off-peak; over cycles, agreed service levels becoming more difficult to meet due to fragmentation.

Fact: impacts show up as last-mile delays raising landed cost; capacity shift pushes trucking rates higher; stakeholders across supply chains face tougher planning; north region volatility drives younger drivers toward safer roles; labour turnover rises.

Practical moves: look for capacity in multiple corners; keep buffer through cross-docking; implement safe hours and compliance checks; master schedules guide decision points; involved stakeholders in joint planning; looking together for improvements; stay flexible.

Longer-term actions: invest in driver training; improve labour relations; create safer working environments; deploy data dashboards to track average utilization; monitor shift coverage; identify capacity gaps; north corridor collaborations reduce last-mile friction; leadership alignment within operations keeps performance on target; stakeholders looking together for steady outcomes.

Identify the main factors driving truck capacity gaps in 2025 across regions

Lock in region-specific capacity through long-term leasing and flexible driver pools now to dampen volatility and keep service levels consistent.

Key factors and practical responses are grouped by region, with concrete actions youre teams can implement immediately. Covid-19 legacy constraints, enforcement regimes, and port logs data feed into the picture, but the core drivers remain labor, equipment, and demand dynamics.

• Americas
  • Driver supply constraints: aging workforce, elevated turnover, limited training capacity. Action: expand leasing options, launch regional academies, offer sign-on and retention incentives to attract new entrants.
  • Equipment and asset availability: chassis and trailer shortages, higher leasing costs, uneven factory output. Action: lock in allocations via long-term contracts, diversify suppliers, and rotate fleets to balance utilization.
  • Port and inland corridor bottlenecks: entry/exit delays, yard congestion, uneven access to lanes. Action: reserve slots, coordinate with shippers for synchronized departures, and use port logs to forecast dwell times.
  • Demand volatility by season: spring surges and peak trade cycles increase utilization pressure. Action: build regional buffers, dynamic routing, and flexible schedules to maintain reliability.
• Europa
  • Regulatory and enforcement pressures: hours-of-service or rest requirements, differing tachograph rules. Action: harmonize scheduling with cross-border teams, invest in compliant tech, and lean on enforcement clarity.
  • Labor mobility constraints: fewer available drivers, language and licensing hurdles for non-nationals. Action: expand cross-border recruitment, enhance training pipelines, and improve pay and career paths to boost retention.
  • Chassis and equipment constraints: persistent shortages at key hubs. Action: strengthen leasing options, coordinate with OEMs for priority units, and optimize fleet mix for regional corridors.
  • Trade and cross-border flows: regulatory checks lengthen border dwell times. Action: deploy digital logs and shared visibility with customs to speed approval and reduce hold times.
• Asia-Pacífico
  • Rapid demand growth and urban restrictions: dense networks, tighter last-mile caps, and rising e-commerce shares. Action: invest in multi-region pooling, expand leased capacity, and adopt flexible route planning to disperse load.
  • Port and inland logistics gaps: container surges, yard congestion, limited crane throughput. Action: pre-book slots, use data-driven scheduling, and leverage logs to align pickup windows.
  • Electrification and fuel transition: fleet renewal cycles, higher upfront leasing costs for new tech. Action: pursue staged leasing for electric options where charging coverage exists and pilot incentive programs for early adopters.
  • Labor and turnover: market-wide driver shortages and higher wage expectations. Action: accelerate local recruiting, offer competitive packages, and build career ladders to improve retention.
• Middle East and Africa
  • Infrastructure gaps: limited yard capacity and uneven port throughput. Action: focus on regional hubs, pre-clearance processes, and use port logs to anticipate congestion.
  • Cross-border frictions: customs clearance delays and regulatory divergence. Action: standardized checks where possible, invest in trusted partner networks, and utilize leasing to smooth capacity shifts.
  • Market fragmentation: dispersed fleet bases and variable demand pockets. Action: form regional pools, align forecasting with trade cycles, and emphasize flexible scheduling to capture opportunistic loads.

Cross-cutting actions to mitigate gaps: align incentives with demand signals, advance research on capacity forecasting, and accelerate data sharing across ports, logs, and carrier networks. Youre able to reduce risk by pairing leasing strategies with targeted driver development, backed by facts and ongoing studies. Spring demand cycles, improved forecasting, and safe, compliant operations will shape the coming year, while more efficient port operations and smarter asset management reduce the number of cases where service levels slip. In short, a coordinated approach today creates opportunities for a steadier economy and smoother trade flows tomorrow.

Quantifying the driver shortage: impact on lane availability and service reliability

Recommendation: Expand your driver pool via targeted recruiting, retention measures; faster onboarding reduces lane gaps, increases service reliability for dispatched ships.

Lane availability across five core corridors fell 12–18% during winter months, causing schedule disruption; a certain portion remained vulnerable, turnover drove volatility in service; pool flexibility matters for restoring normal throughput, impacting reliability.

On-time rate dropped from 92% past quarter to 83–85% during winter; short-term term effects include longer dwell times, more missed pickups, below-normal shipped-volume consistency; backup capacity helps keep operations underway, which puts pressure on lanes.

Entering spring, recovery hinges on issuing a second driver pool; faster onboarding, senior motor teams stay flexible; good performance persists, inevitable winter returns.

Establish backup lanes by pre-booking capacity; diversify origin-destination pairs; supply chain teams track winter vs spring delta, enabling preemptive adjustments because demand shifts; drug testing compliance keeps driver pool safe.

Key metrics to monitor include lane availability, pool size, turnover rate, on-time share, shipped volume, second-order effects; источник of disruption tracked alongside winter vs spring delta; president-level support provides resources provided for capacity expansion; higher visibility keeps your operation more resilient.

Regulatory and policy frictions affecting trucking capacity (hours-of-service, licensing, cross-border rules)

Recommendation: Harmonize hours-of-service windows; implement mutual licensing recognition; deploy interoperable logging devices; streamline cross-border procedures; maintain supply chain continuity underway.

• Hours-of-service constraints

  Constraint reduces available driving window; disruptions tend to ripple through schedules; economy suffers; logs mandated via device; electronic logs widely known; discussions underway; younger drivers bear heavier work-life pressures; shift toward more flexible windows; first step: publish uniform HOS guidance across borders; second step: align rest-break structures with typical routes; fatigue risk management plan required; expected impact: capacity utilization improves significantly; turn in market dynamics accelerates competitive positioning.

• Licensing friction

  Licensing backlog raises onboarding costs; testing delays shrink available workforce; younger entrants face longer wait times; mutual recognition between jurisdictions cuts processing times; online testing plus remote verifications; A recent report highlights progress; youre pushing for faster entry, set target 30-day credentialing window; allocate resources; maintain safety standards; economic outlook improves gradually; degree of improvement remains a key metric.

• Cross-border rules and documentation

  Border procedures create dwell time at entry points; pre-clearance programs streamline movement; digital documentation bundles reduce duplication; excess paperwork remains; trusted-shipper status speeds clearance; interoperable data standards required; economy gains when border friction decreases; propose: establish centralized permit portal; require smart checks using real-time logs; maintain privacy safeguards; recently proposed pilot programs underway; news from regulators indicates progress; ship movements become more predictable; availability rises for fleets; turnover reduced; impacting margins; every touchpoint on border flow becomes more efficient; normal operations begin to resume gradually; not entirely solved by policy changes; remaining friction requires ongoing discussions.

• Data governance; logging; enforcement

  Logs integrity remains vital; device readings feed enforcement thresholds; logging literacy training provided to enforcement personnel; cross-agency sharing possible under privacy rules; penalties for data gaps exist; pilot for automated alerts; retention policies align with audits; inspectors receive targeted training; aim: reduce disruptions; reporting cycles provide rapid policy feedback; news indicates setup underway; not entirely solved; fully implemented measures show significant gains; degree of improvement depends on tempo.

Demand dynamics shaping cargo volumes: e-commerce growth, inventory rebuilds, peak season patterns

Actionable start: align capacity with demand signals now; integrate ecommerce pull, inventory rebuild schedules, peak-period spikes into a single plan. Build a model linking order flow to equipment needs, workforce shifts, transport lanes.

Currently: ecommerce growth shifts order patterns; volumes arrive earlier in week; home-delivery demand concentrates on residential hubs; average cycle time from order to receipt tightens.

Inventory rebuilds drive higher volumes in late Q3 to early Q4; forecasts show variability below 15% by region when replenishment cycles stay tight.

Peak-season patterns show highest pressures between October through December; pre-booked capacity, flexible modes, cross-docking help stay reliably.

Momentum tactics: maintain a lean yet capable workforce; skills cross-training increases flexibility; partner with owner-operators; use data to adjust routes, timing, position by region; ensure sure service commitments.

Fact: economic headwinds persist; margins tighten as demand rises; worse, effect on margins requires agile pricing; supply constraints push costs higher; staying nimble reduces consequences.

Positioning steps: locate near-home hubs for home deliveries; keep a diversified supplier base; invest in equipment, digital tools; keep wages competitive to retain workforce; involved operations teams in planning.

Between rising volumes, maintain reliability; monitor average service levels; anticipating entering peak with lower risk.

Know which routes see strongest growth; address things that slow movement; align margin targets with service quality; position buffers to cover peak demand; part of plan is seasonal buffers.

Institute cross-functional reviews to convert planning into actions across supply, operations; finance support.

Create stable jobs in regions by localizing shifts.

Vise tradeoffs between cost and service by prioritizing scarce equipment on high-return lanes.

Logistics bottlenecks beyond trucking: port congestion, chassis shortages, rail and intermodal gaps

Adopt a diversified capacity plan across ports, inland hubs, and rail corridors; lock capacity with multiple carriers, especially owner-operators; also build an 8–12 week demand buffer to protect margins.

According to history, port congestion tends to push flow toward bottlenecks. In recent cycles, major gateways reported average dwell times of 4–6 days during peak periods; transfer times between ocean and rail extended to 8–12 hours; intermodal flow slowed, causing costs to highest levels for most services.

Chassis scarcity bites; availability remains around 60–70% of demand in coastal corridors, with some hubs dipping below 50% during surges. Worse conditions trigger drayage delays, reducing over-the-road reliability; margins tighten as per-mile costs rise; fleets feel a difficult, persistent feeling of constraint.

Intermodal gaps remain a second hurdle: lack of seamless handoffs between rail yards; inland terminals slow turn times. Manufacturers report lack of capacity to meet consumer demands; a younger buyer segment expects speed; markets shift toward faster, visible services for commercial clients.

Stay resilient: deploy near-dock and cross-dock facilities; expand container pools; use data-sharing among field teams; services providers; customers; maintain visibility across networks, always accessible to planners; diversify schedules to keep plenty slack capacity during peak windows, to cover second-order shocks.

History shows turbulence in supply chains shapes margins; history repeats whenever volumes rise, while port, chassis, rail constraints tighten. Last, risk remains; stay vigilant: use scenario planning; maintain full visibility across networks; keep plenty capacity ready for market shifts.