Informe del mercado de fletes marítimos – Octubre de 2024 – Tendencias, tarifas y perspectivas

Recommendation: form formal coalitions with leading gateways across regional corridors; align capacity commitments, pricing signals, tender schedules; this lowers variability in output; heading toward stability within Asia routes.

Key data points: containerized flow through gateways in europe; north america shows roughly 6–8 percent year-over-year growth; Asia adds an upward contribution; labor constraints in port precincts trim agility; schedules remain tight.

Tariffs remain a risk across multiple routes beyond traditional corridors; route selection remains critical; regional operators must prepare hedges, diversify suppliers; avoid reliance on single route options.

Output from containerized streams in Asia-based corridors signals resilience; regional textile flows, notably wool, show limited slack; carriers should adjust tendering to reflect seasonal demand; containerized throughput remains responsive to pricing signals quickly.

Key factors shaping outcomes: tariff risk; labor dynamics; rail connectivity; escalation in policy measures beyond traditional markets; front priorities guide resource allocation; alliances facilitate resilience through gateways; sector perspective guides risk budgeting; sector-level monitoring advised.

Operational guidance: implement dynamic route maps; monitor pricing signals for regional corridors; maintaining flexible output; leaving room for quick adjustments if supply chains tighten; front priorities include port calls, hinterland links; rerouting options remain open; this approach is considered essential by several operators.

Nota: avoiding single-route exposure reduces risk for wool shipments; Asia-focused segments; regional routes.

Ocean Freight Market Brief

Recommendation: secure long-term contracts with diversified alliances to stabilize rates; lock in predictable transit times; prioritize routes that connect africa with major consuming states; adopt a mid-term view beginning april to balance short-term shocks.

Context: capacity rose across major lanes by 4.2% QoQ; voyage times tightened on key routes by 3–6 days on average; growing demand for perishables such as fruit; beef shipments rise during peak seasons; secure networks shorten dwell times; stronger alliances counter downward pressure on rates; those operators use information-driven tools for improved visibility; past disruptions guide mid-term responses; being exposed to volatility informs contingency planning; one driver remains a shift toward africa; states with expanding manufacturing.

Operational metrics: utilization rose to 88 percent in key corridors; transit speed improved by 2–5 days on multi-leg voyages; information-enabled planning reduces surprises; april data confirms adjustments; current supply chains show growing resilience; those shifts support a stronger, cost-efficient network; improvement in on-time performance is being observed across core lanes; to assess risk more accurately, full visibility remains essential.

Next steps: lock in long-term commitments; reconfigure alliances; deploy data-sharing across networks; monitor increases in capacity; adjust risk exposure; review april benchmarks; ensure secure cargo handling; maintain a full information base for governance; those measures reduce losses during volatile cycles.

Rate Trends by Major Lanes (Asia-Europe, Asia-North America, Transatlantic) – Oct 2024

Recommendation: Front-load the Asia-Europe bookings in the next 14–21 days to lock pricing before any renewed volatility, as current data indicates pricing in this corridor dropped about 12–15 percent versus the prior cycle. Inventory at key entry points remains elevated and feeder networks are operating at higher utilization, supporting a secure window for early commitments. Targeting early space reservations for Indian-origin trade flows can secure better coverage, and a specialized, contract-backed approach reduces exposure to sudden moves; trigger-driven price adjustments are likely if congestion tightens again.

Asia-North America dynamics show mixed signals. The status suggests a cooling impulse in several segments, with volumes down roughly 6–9 percent versus the previous period. Inventory at West Coast hubs rose about 5–7 percent, and days of dwell edged higher by 2–3 days in the main corridors. This indicates a window where targeting longer-term arrangements and prioritizing carriers with robust feeder connections can sustain reliability; prices could stabilise if demand holds, but the volatility remains, so preventive front-loading is still a prudent move for top-tier commodities and specialized cargoes.

Transatlantic activity reflects firmer availability but remains sensitive to macro shifts. Pricing has dropped by about 4–8 percent from the prior window, and days of transit shortened in several routes, signaling better predictability for planned shipments. Amid this status, focusing on secure bookings with carrier-backed slots and diversified providers is advisable; just-in-time replenishment plans are more feasible now. Putin-related geopolitical dynamics may still trigger occasional spikes in advisories or coverage constraints, so maintaining flexible targeting and backup feeders remains part of a prudent fiscal stance and risk management program.

Fuel Surcharges: Energy Price Sensitivity and Cost Implications

Introduce a direct, dynamic fuel surcharge model that tracks near-term energy prices; adjustments occur within short-lived windows, enabling maintaining predictability for consumer costs amid shocks.

Energy price swings reflect in surcharge levels; in the last four windows, key energy indices moved 15–25%, pushing direct surcharges within a 0.8%–3.2% range across typical routes.

Operationally redeploying capacity to routes with lower energy exposure reduces trading pressures; labour burdens lighten; service reliability stays high. Consider introducing additional buffers in the model to absorb shocks for peak periods.

Impact on consumer budgets becomes increasingly visible; adding buffers to the model in anticipation of energy spikes improves resilience. Companies should communicate clear triggers; maintain visibility within the usual range; including early warnings for last-mile windows.

Vessel Availability and Schedule Management: Actions for Shippers

Lock preferred capacity early before peak windows; build a tiered vendor roster; align with production calendars; implement fixed sailing windows to stabilize on-time performance amid volatility.

Before engaging, quantify volume projections across automotive supply, consumer goods; manufacturing; map voyage requirements to routing options; track temperature indicators such as bunker prices, port dwell times; monitor vessel utilization curves to identify acute shifts.

Establish a scheduling discipline recognizing pattern shifts; set alert thresholds for disrupted routes; implement contingency rules for switching between mainline service; ensure consistent handoffs from origin port to destination port.

Scheduling actions include live capacity tracking; volume-based slot procurement; use barge options where viable; align calls with port windows; preserve flexibility to reroute amid tensions and congestion.

Increased visibility enables tighter decision cycles; shippers could reduce idle time by 15–25 percent when space is prioritized 20–30 days ahead; track on-time performance by voyage segment; monitor volume fluctuations by region.

Routing flexibility matters; automotive shipments benefit from alternative modes such as barge moves on inland legs; schedule buffers around peak loads; maintain consistency with inland transport to avoid bottlenecks.

Pricing terms require clarity; lock-in pricing for critical lanes; use performance clauses referencing on-time delivery targets; ensure the contract language allows mid-month amendments amid shifting capacity.

Dashboard supports handling volatility signals; capacity across lanes; vessel pacing.

Coordinate with terminal operators to secure preferred call windows; share forecast data with carriers to reduce lead time discrepancies; align with inland supply chain to minimize cross-dock delays.

Review cadence: weekly checks on availability; berth occupancy; vessel queue length; flag acute mismatches: volume forecasts versus capacity; adjust scheduling rules accordingly.

Port Congestion and Inland Transit: Practical Timing and Cost Mitigation

Recommendation: lock in ample inland transit buffers of 7–10 days during peak spans; set standard lead times at origin to absorb disruption amid strikes, holidays, or severe weather; monitor a single network-wide dashboard for live reporting of arrivals, dwell times, departures; deploy two backup inland routes in southern hubs to keep cargo moving when primary corridors stall. Only these steps ensure resilience when sudden, unforeseen disruption hits.

Takeaways for planners include slightly longer lead times during the fourth period; thorough monitoring of authority advisories; proactive renegotiation of service levels with carriers willing to lift capacity when demand spikes; reporting across countries including american partners; network-wide alerts for disruptions amid strikes, holidays; buffers to reduce exposure to disruption; restructuring to strengthen the economy through better forecasting; affect throughput across corridors, aiding resilience even amid flight schedules volatility; taken together, these measures reduce risk and yield clearer reporting.

Strategic timing during severe disruption periods requires keeping the network flexible; already american, southern partners co-create buffers; the restructuring increases reliability; pockets of longer lead times across the southern corridor equal ample inland moves; reporting improves visibility for countries including the network; cost containment relies on longer planning horizons to avoid peak surges; investing in predictive planning tools, plus flight schedule awareness, mitigates risk taken by operators.

Freight Procurement Tactics: Hedging and Contracts for 2025 Energy Costs

Recommendation: Lock baseline energy-linked charges using a diversified mix of long-term agreements anchored to a transparent energy index; supplement with time-bound options to cap exposure. Target visibility across the value chain for the full year.

• Hedging architecture alongside scenario planning; define a twelve-month horizon; quarterly resets; fixed-price legs; volatile cost trajectories; volatility collars; options with defined strikes; updates feed data for monthly reforecasting; governance cadence keeps performance on track.
• Contract designs for energy-driven costs: long-term fixed-price blocks; energy-index linked adjustments; price triggers with discrete thresholds; clear termination rules; performance metrics; alignment with supplier rules; management updates feed into quarterly reviews.
• Operational discipline: keep data hygiene; monthly updates; risk dashboards for exporters, imports; monitor large vessels movements; operate during disruption; suez canal disruptions; after disruption, execute pre-agreed playbooks; ghost disruption indicators underlines prevalent risks.
• Geopolitical risk management: monitor china trade flows; adjust hedges on a quarterly basis; push coverage when imfs forecasts indicate shifts; adhere to rules; maintain supply flexibility.
• Exposure measurement; export cost components feed into hedging posture; quantify energy costs in USD per TEU; track fuel cost shifts; keep updates from donald; gcaptain; wool sources; include magic liquidity signals; less speculative bets generally; generally credible signals underline evident risks; after updates, revise hedging posture; updates brought clarity.
• Operational readiness for exporters, imports: align with management; coordinate with suez risk teams; keep communication with large vessels; ensure timeliest updates from carriers; after disruption triggers, execute prepared responses; price volatility remains a persistent risk; ghost risks become evident, requiring quick pivots.