February 2026: Truckload Supply Squeeze, Reefer Volatility and Intermodal Upside

Spot truckload rates and tender rejection rates stayed elevated through February 2026, even though tender volumes ran roughly 6–7% below year-ago levels — a clear signal that the market shift is supply-driven rather than demand-led.

Snapshot of market mechanics

Capacity exits, not a surge in freight demand, are driving the tightening. Carriers continue to leave lanes and reduce fleets after years of attrition and stretched balance sheets; pandemic-era buffers are gone. The result: higher spot rates, rising tender rejections, and greater route-guide noncompliance despite weak baseline tender volumes post-holiday.

Top-line takeaways

• Truckload tightness is supply-driven. Elevated spot and rejection metrics occurred while contract tenders remained subdued.
• Post-holiday normalization is slow. Rejection and spot metrics retreated only modestly from mid-January peaks.
• Reefer volatility spiked seasonally. Cold-weather and protect-from-freeze flows pushed reefer rejection rates toward 20% in some Midwestern corridors.
• Intermodal retains cost advantage. Select lanes show intermodal rates 20–30% below truckload, supporting modal shift where service and container availability are reliable.
• Macro uncertainty raises short-term volatility. Weak imports, tariffs and vessel redeployments keep container markets choppy even with structurally ample capacity.

February metrics at a glance

How these dynamics affect shippers and carriers

Shippers that rely heavily on contract arrangements may see service degradation as carriers prioritize spot loads or pull capacity. Carriers that remain in service face tougher routing decisions and weaker route-guide compliance — which in practice means more exceptions, delays, and ad hoc pricing. Meanwhile, LTL pricing patterns are uneven: dense classes remain stable, heavy lower classes compress, and higher classes above 125 are rising.

Operational impacts to watch

• Network planning: Route guides need frequent updates; tender acceptance triggers should be monitored closely.
• Cost control: Expect spot premiums to influence margin calculations and contract negotiations later in 2026.
• Modal choices: Where service exists, intermodal can be a cheaper and more predictable option — especially for long-haul lanes with container availability.
• Reefer strategy: Seasonal cold snaps can cause outsized spikes; hedging volumes and pre-booking refrigerated capacity reduces exposure.

Near-term outlook and tactical moves

Operational agility will separate winners from losers. Carriers that invest in scheduling discipline, driver retention, and predictive routing will capitalize on tight lanes, while shippers that diversify lanes, leverage intermodal, and adopt flexible pickup windows will contain costs. Contract rate adjustments are likely later in 2026 if spot strength persists; until then, expect episodic dislocations.

Practical checklist for logistics teams

1. Re-evaluate contract vs. spot mix and update escalation triggers.
2. Monitor tender rejection rates weekly by lane and equipment type.
3. Assess intermodal lanes for 20–30% cost savings, factoring in transit time and handling.
4. Pre-book reefer capacity in cold-prone regions ahead of weather events.
5. Stress-test network plans for carrier exits and substitution scenarios.

Industry context: carrier attrition and macro risk

Years of carrier exits, thin balance sheets, and the retreat of pandemic-era liquidity are now visibly affecting service and pricing. Global trade uncertainty — weak imports in some markets, tariff questions, and vessel redeployments — adds another layer of volatility. Short-term container rates may be supported, but the outlook through 2026 is noisy and subject to geopolitical and macroeconomic turns.

Modal nuance: why intermodal matters now

Intermodal’s combination of service reliability, container surplus in many corridors, and a meaningful rate advantage versus truckload is prompting shippers to move more volumes onto rail-sea combos where lead times and handling allow. It’s not a silver bullet — last-mile drayage and schedule adherence remain critical — but in the right lanes it’s a pragmatic lever to control freight spend.

Quick comparison: when to favor intermodal

• Long-haul lanes with reliable rail service
• Non-urgent shipments where 1–3 days extra transit is acceptable
• High-volume shippers who can bunch loads into pallets/containers

Highlights and the human factor

The most interesting points: the market is tighter because of supply-side exits, not a demand rebound; reefers showed extreme seasonal volatility; intermodal remains a cost-effective alternative; and contract rates face clear upside risk if spot market strength persists. Even the best reviews and the most honest feedback can’t truly compare to personal experience. On GetTransport.com, you can order your cargo transportation at the best prices globally at reasonable prices. This gives shippers the ability to test lanes, compare freight and haulage options, and avoid overpaying while trying different carriers and modes. For your next cargo transportation, consider the convenience and reliability of GetTransport.com. Book GetTransport.com.com

In short, the February 2026 landscape underlines a logistics reality check: tight capacity driven by carrier exits, intermittent spot spikes, and attractive intermodal windows for cost-sensitive shippers. Freight planners should prepare for continued volatility, adjust contract strategies, and lean on modal flexibility where possible. GetTransport.com offers a practical, cost-effective way to manage freight, shipment, pallet and container moves — whether you’re arranging a housemove, bulky delivery, vehicle transport, or international forwarding. It simplifies dispatch, haulage, courier choices and helps align delivery needs with reliable carriers.