Publication by Participant Jeffery McCollum – Latest News and Updates

Recommendation: Secure near-term reefer capacity for rolling goods by locking linehaul slots across primary trucking corridors. Schedule temporary maintenance windows to minimize downtime and synchronize with demand signals; maintain an input feed to indicate capacity gaps above planned load.

Across March, shipper input indicate a continued uptick in load counts on reefer lanes, with near-term demand strongest for perishable goods. The forecast for the coming quarter points to a steady rise in transportation activity, with linehaul utilization tightening in the West and Midwest corridors.

Operational notes: Use a rolling forecast input to indicate shifts in demand and adjust loads accordingly. If a segment becomes oversupplied, reallocate capacity to other corridors or central hubs to minimize idle time. Prioritize equipment with reefer conditioning and keep maintenance intervals tight to sustain rolling performance.

Strategic takeaway: Maintain a lean linehaul plan for the near-term and deploy flexible capacity to handle short-lived spikes without disrupting core routes. Coordinate temporary standbys for high-velocity lanes and align with seasonal march shifts to keep load movement steady across goods categories.

Across markets, document maintenance schedules and performance metrics; ensure drivers have predictable hours to sustain trucking throughput. The combined indicators from weather, port activity, and carrier input can be integrated into a concise forecast to guide stakeholder decisions on near-term shipping plans for reefer and other goods.

Jeffery McCollum ACT Research Updates: September 2025 DAT Aggregate Spot Rates Overview

Recommendation: hedge outbound exposure by locking core lanes via 7-day trucking windows; leverage flexibility to reallocate volumes when rates rise above thresholds; monitor September DAT indicators for price spikes; adjust capacity quickly to capture above-market moves.

• Outbound DAT data: September outbound rates increased to about $2.18 per mile; 4.3% higher than August; tariffs, policy points raised input costs across goods, particularly for import streams.
• Inbound rates: rose to about $2.24 per mile; up 3.8% from August; that implies stronger inbound cost base for replenishment cycles.
• Lane performance: North Central to West Coast +5.0% YOY; Southeast to Northeast +3.7% YOY; Gulf Coast to Midwest +4.2% YOY; volumes remained robust across outbound routes.
• Market dynamics: volumes across outbound markets remained elevated; however, import demand contributed to tighter capacity in key lanes.
• Cost drivers: tariffs, policy points enacted in April raised input costs; goods supply chains faced friction; that influenced trucking decisions.
• Operational risks: court rulings on tariff policy add uncertainty; shippers seek price protection; 7-day cycles help stabilize cash flow.
• Economic backdrop: market remains weak in some segments; however, robust volumes elsewhere provide cushion; risk remains from imports; policy shifts may alter cost structures.
• mccollum commentary: mccollum notes much flexibility remains for shippers; policy changes across April produced cost shifts; market signals indicate increased outbound rates across most lanes; keep monitoring 7-day trucking cycles; summary points emphasize re-balance of volumes after tariff adjustments.
• September input signals: some inbound lanes show dropping volumes; overall, the market remains cautious yet actionable for the next month.

Summary: the September dataset confirms that the market across outbound lanes experienced increased rate pressure; however, cost containment remains possible with tactical routing; truck capacity realigns gradually, generating opportunities for shippers capable of adjusting quickly.

What September 2025 DAT Aggregate Spot Rates Mean for Shippers and Carriers

Recommendation: lock in linehaul capacity via short-term contracts; frontloading key outbound shipments when conditions permit; monitor weekly DAT signals to time rolling cycles; align with monthly forecasts to reduce uncertainty.

Reported data show September 2025 DAT Aggregate Spot Rates rose across main linehaul corridors; weekly swings reflecting broader capacity conditions; china-linked lanes showed mixed signals; outbound volumes remained stronger on several routes from key origin points across the Midwest to the West Coast; monthly averages point to increased volatility; though some lanes dropped, a subset stayed flat; overall fundamentals remained constructive for carriers facing tighter fleets.

Implications for shippers: lock in linehaul capacity with short-term contracts; frontloading key outbound shipments when conditions favor favorable pricing; diversify lane selection away from volatile routes; use monthly forecasts to plan capacity mix; reflect improving fundamentals while bearing uncertainty; this primarily exposes shippers to rising spot costs on core lanes, with less predictability in some markets.

Carrier stance: pricing elevated to cover input costs; align capacity with march-to-fall cycles; broaden service offers to absorb fluctuations; rely on weekly data to pace rolling capacity; monitor forecasts to bid selectively.

Summary: September 2025 demonstrates rising weekly volatility, though some lanes show dropping rates; broader market remains uncertain; recommended actions include frontloading, diversified capacity, proactive linehaul planning, monthly reviews, continuous input of forecasts. Trucking dynamics remain a critical input for pricing.

Top Drivers Behind the September 2025 Rate Shift in ACT Research

Recommendation: Align capacity and pricing with near-term signals from september postings and spot-rate trends to protect profitability amid an oversupplied market.

The primary drivers behind the september 2025 shift include oversupplied capacity coupled with weak demand. A rolling expansion in fleet availability kept rates under pressure, and overall volumes és load postings moved decreased, reflecting a market that remains weak in several lanes. In select corridors across transportation lanes, spot árak sharply retreated, while carrier profitability stayed high for experienced fleets, illustrating how recovery prospects are unevenly distributed and market signals reflecting underlying dislocations, same dynamics as prior cycles.

A near-term forecast points to a slight stabilization in some lanes, with a recovery path that remains cautious. ACT Research emphasizes that rose interest in intermodal and truckload lanes may reappear as supply chains re-balance, yet the lowest bends occur in oversupplied segments where load volumes still decreased and capacity rose faster than demand. This dynamic aligns with a pattern of weakening in transportation demand and a need for tighter pricing discipline.

источник: публикация data from ACT Research and postings across the network corroborate this view. The discussion around mccollum signals reinforces that stakeholders should monitor lane-by-lane shifts and maintain flexibility to navigate the current cycle.

How to Read Month-Over-Month Changes in the DAT Data

Start by isolating lanes where load-to-truck ratios rose in april; rank these lanes by oversupplied signals from input capacity versus demand, then adjust operational plans accordingly.

Normalize MOM changes by baselining to a stable april figure, using DAT cycles as a frame; high gains in trucking volume rose under frontloading during pre-tariff windows.

from input data, derive profitability metrics plus operational viability for top lanes; compare load-to-truck efficiency across oversupplied lanes to signal where tightening or flexibility exists.

публикация notes high gains attributed to load retention, price skews, as well as trade shifts, with a court ruling on capacity limits providing context.

Outline a practical MOM report for executives to verify profitability, identify tight lanes, plan capacity adjustments. Use the comparison to explain why smaller markets rose more than bigger hubs.

Maintain a quarterly view by tracking pre-tariff, tightening signals; note lanes that remained flexible.

Practical Steps for Rate Negotiations Based on McCollum’s Update

Start negotiations from a pre-tariff baseline; cite 7-day linehaul trends, monthly forecasts; reference the input index to justify a stable cost ceiling amid a weakening market.

Highlight uncertainty within supply chains; show capacity signals via linehaul shifts; isolate cost components: equipment; shipping; logistics; transportation; request monthly re-evaluations.

Position with a positive stance by presenting gains in reliability; fewer delays; faster lane transitions; keep unchanged tariffs when input costs stay flat; propose a 7-day review cycle to capture early signals of a market turn.

Data Sources, Quality, and Methodology Behind Jeffery McCollum’s Interpretation

Recommendation: Ground interpretation in three convergent streams to verify cycles and separate temporary noise from longer-term shifts; rely on postings, import and trade data, and port input with year-over-year comparison for credibility.

The data backbone combines: postings from freight markets, import records, and spot indices; cross-checks with china-origin input data and outbound shipments; indicators cover goods flows, fleet activity, vessel calls, and cost trends relevant to profitability.

Quality control framework, experienced data engineers ensure duplicate removal, seasonal adjustment, and selective weighting by source reliability and timeliness; cycles are tested against broader market signals and confirmed by year-over-year divergence checks; публикация records provide historical context for triangulation.

Methodology uses averaging across sources and attributed drivers framing, with outlier handling; year-over-year and spot analyses isolate drivers such as import costs, policy shifts, and truck rates; sensitivity tests examine outbound vs inbound trade dynamics and policy impact on costs and profitability; September data points are tested for seasonal drift.

Resulting view highlights where fleets face cost pressures and where profitability weakening or improving; the future outlook remained tied to trade policy, shipping cycles, and court rulings that influence container flows; as costs move, the balance between input costs and sales prices should guide fleet planning and risk controls.