キャリア、第3四半期のブランク・セーリングを発表 – 貨物運賃への影響

Recommendation: Shippers should re-evaluate inventories and routing in light of Q3 idle service pauses, using sea-intelligence signals to map expected cargo from europe to other markets and to build buffers in stores, being aware that this can mean pricing drift on sensitive corridors.

この中で article, sea-intelligence signals show that idle capacity prompts alliances to adjust 貨物 schedules across corridors from europe toward worldsである。 fuel considerations shaping pricing expectations.

Analysts expect shippers to diversify routes, consolidate 貨物, and leverage multi-operator or multi-alliance lines to smooth pricing across lanes, while manufacturers and stores recalibrate orders to meet their needs and reduce stockouts.

Operational takeaway: prioritize scrubber-equipped fleet options where fuel use matters, negotiate with partners about alliances overlap, and build a plan that sits between when demand rebounds and from supplier lead times.

Look ahead: This stance aims to keep costs predictable for shippers while monitoring sea-intelligence updates and maintaining resilience in a volatile business cycle, giving hope that margins can stabilize.

Carriers Unveil Q3 Blank Sailings: Insight for Shippers

Right actions begin with a precise read of numbers from sea-intelligence and alliances, showing where blanked sailings hit lanes most. Shippers should map total outbound volumes against shutdowns, while keeping inventory levels lean to avoid idle stores. This approach supports businesses by reducing wasted turns and improving return cycles when disruption pressure rises.

First, third-quarter data reveal that the most significant pullbacks occur on long-haul lanes, while regional corridors hold steadier volumes. Operators linked through alliances can reallocate capacity to minimize disruption, maintaining service continuity while tightening cost controls.

Fuel costs, scrubber investments, and shutdowns pressure the total cost of moving goods, creating idle periods around key hubs. There is value in rerouting to near stores when feasible to maintain ready inventory and avoid gaps in supply.

To manage right now, shippers should build a three-scenario plan that weighs base, upside, and downside outcomes using numbers from sea-intelligence. This helps align with alliances, enabling a safer return cadence while minimizing risk to the bottom line.

When blanked routes reappear, liners must adjust, but a steady plan minimizes disruption. There, liner teams monitor queue lengths at hubs, enabling quick responses and maintaining service levels. This ensures continuity while preserving fuel efficiency.

Great emphasis on reliability helps shippers maintain service as capacity shifts. This world context, combined with a focus on total cost, supports faster decision-making and stronger stakeholder confidence.

From this perspective, being proactive around third-party forecasts reduces costs and keeps businesses ready to respond to market moves. There is value in maintaining optional inventory to cover spikes and to sustain service across shifting lanes.

Near-Term Freight Rate Moves and Volatility

There is a great need to lock in near-term coverage for the coming quarter by selecting multiple carrier options and securing slots ahead of additional blank sailings, as sea-intelligence signals persistent capacity tightness being driven by alliance actions and cargo-shift patterns there.

Numbers from the latest data show alliance-led reductions totaling 6-9% of available capacity on key lanes in the quarter, lifting freight costs in several corridors by mid-single digits to low double digits, when fuel volatility compounds demand shifts; their impact is felt by shippers across maritime, from Asia to Europe and beyond, with return cargo flows showing resilience in some markets in this world.

Shippers should diversify routes and lock in return cargo opportunities, while carriers monitor fuel-driven cost creep and adjust pricing with caution; this being the first-mover advantage to those that secure slots with two carriers, limiting exposure to any single partner.

sea-intelligence data this quarter unveil that their first moves by the alliance were designed to balance cargo flows from ships, returning higher costs for freight while maintaining service on core lanes; the total impact on shipping costs reflects fuel swings and demand shifts, and numbers show volatility rising when volumes rebound.

Which Routes Are Most Affected by Q3 Blank Sailings?

Recommendation: prioritize Asia–Europe and Asia–North America corridors, where blanked schedules hit total capacity hardest; align with a single alliance to meet demand, ready contingency plans, and lock in priority slots for quarter-end shipments that support the business.

Sea-intelligence numbers show that in the third quarter, departures on Asia→Europe and Asia→North America West Coast were reduced by roughly 10–18%, with the total ships on these lanes down double digits while other routes held steadier.

Which routes are most affected? The Asia→Europe, Asia→North America West Coast, and Europe→US East Coast corridors show the strongest impact, driven by blanked schedules that carriers and maritime alliances have concentrated on core loops; when ships are pulled from secondary paths, they reduce total availability on these hubs.

Right considerations: carriers and maritime alliances adjust allocations in response to the quarter’s disruption; this caused a rebalancing toward hubs with higher reliability, ready to shift tonnage to meet expected demand while balancing scrubber-equipped ships versus older tonnage.

From the article, business teams should act to seize the opportunity: when numbers meet forecasts, shippers can optimize costs by rerouting from Asia to Europe and to the US West Coast; ready planning with alliances, third-party data, and sea-intelligence can strengthen resilience and reduce volatility.

Opportunity for Scrubber Installations: Timing and Costs

Start a phased scrubber retrofit program now, prioritizing idle ships under a single carrier with European routes, to be ready in the third-quarter window. Coordinate with alliances to minimize dry-dock downtime and align with shippers to avoid service gaps. Use sea-intelligence insights to time the installations when lockdowns ease and stores replenish, so the carrier can return to world operations with minimal disruption.

Cost dynamics: total investment per vessel scales with hull size and retrofit scope. Typical figures float between 4 and 12 million, with more complex exhaust configurations climbing beyond 15 million. A mean figure sits around 8 million per hull, varying by exhaust choice and yard. This mix looks great on a cost curve when you view it against potential fuel savings. To manage the total burden, stage purchases across a few ships in Q3, narrow quotes from reputable yards, and lock in prices before any additional supplier lockdowns. Factor potential delays when the world market faces supply-chain bottlenecks; align procurement with European yards in Q2 to lock capacity.

That approach yields significant gains, particularly when fuel differentials widen and installation options improve; very favorable payback is possible. Look at the potential to share assets within alliances, allowing a scrubber system to support cargo moves across the world. From an operational standpoint, target first- and third-quarter windows to minimize idle time while keeping ships ready to return to duty. Shippers look at predictable schedules and stable cargo across the world.

需要回復の兆し：需要はいつ回復するのか？

直接的なガイダンス：アライアンスは、来るべき回復を捉えるために、今すぐ輸送能力を確保する必要がある。潜在力の高い航路でスケジュールを調整し、船舶の準備を整え、ヨーロッパとアジアの小売在庫補充サイクルを促進する航路に軸足を移すこと。これにより、企業は遊休コストを回避しながら利益率を再構築できるという、大きな機会が生まれる。.

1. ベースケースのタイムライン：需要は2025年下半期から2026年にかけて徐々に回復すると予想され、2026年前半には主要な輸送ルートで顕著な回復が見込まれます。アジア-欧州およびアジア-北米ルートで早期の兆しが見られる可能性が高く、これらのルート周辺の輸送は店舗の在庫補充に伴い、より高い稼働率で推移すると見られます。.
2. アップサイドシナリオ：消費者心理が改善し、在庫の正常化がより早く進めば、2025年後半には利益が実現し、2026年第1四半期にはさらに急激な増加が見込まれます。スペースを確保する海事上の権利は、アライアンス全体でより迅速なキャパシティ調整につながる可能性があります。.
3. 下方リスク： マクロ経済の回復が遅れることで、遊休設備がより長く高止まりし、この需要期に対応するためには、全艦隊にわたるより厳格な資産管理と柔軟なサービス計画が求められます。.

• 店舗および小売業者：ネットワーク全体での店舗の在庫補充は、より強い勢いを示しています。在庫は目標水準に近づき、需要回復の兆しが見られます。.
• 製造業と受注：受注残は減少し、上流の生産データは新規受注の増加を示唆しており、アジア-ヨーロッパやアジア-北米などの主要ルートにおける処理能力の向上を支持しています。.
• フリートとアイドルキャパシティ：主要航路において、アイドル船のシェアは4～6％程度に低下。スクラバー搭載船は最新のフリートの約40～50％を占め、輸送量増加に伴いコスト管理に貢献。.
• アライアンスと輸送能力の抑制：アライアンスは主要航路での安定した運航を約束し、需要の高い航路の変動を抑え、予測可能性を高めます。.
• 小売チャネル：越境ストアは本格的に再入荷サイクルを開始し、アジアからヨーロッパへの出荷によって、この期間を満たす明確な道筋を立てています。.

• 購買およびロジスティクス計画の調整に備え、最も活発な航路で優先スペースを確保するために、アライアンスパートナーと連携してください。.
• 柔軟な輸送能力を維持する。需要変動に、コストベースを過度に増加させることなく対応できるよう、大型船とフィーダー船を組み合わせて保有する。.
• 燃料効率に投資する：輸送量が回復するにつれて、運営コストを削減するために、不可欠なトン数に対するスクラバーのレトロフィットを加速する。.
• 海事パートナーと連携する。同盟は、予測データを共有し、スケジュールを調整して待機時間を削減し、船舶と船隊が拡大に対応できるようにする必要がある。.
• 日々の指標を監視する：店舗補充、在庫水準、製造オーダー、港湾混雑指標を検証し、その軌道を確認する。.

ブランク・セーリングのサイクルにおける荷主のための実践的な行動

まず、ピーク前にシーインテリジェンスからの情報をもとに、アライアンスや複数のサービスプロバイダーと連携することで、主要航路のスペースを確保してください。この記事では、焦点を絞りつつも、対応が必要な場合に荷主にとって明確な道筋となるアプローチを紹介します。.

数値によると、重要な輸送路において輸送能力が約8～12%縮小する可能性があり、総輸送時間が4～9日増加する可能性があります。急増を避け、貨物の流れを維持するために、これらの範囲を考慮して計画を立ててください。.

在庫の準備：取り扱い可能な状態の店舗；貨物プログラムのボトルネックを減らし、信頼性を向上させるため、サイクル内で貨物を複数の輸送に分割して小さな積荷にする。.

燃料計画：長距離航路での低速航行の実施、内陸輸送距離を短縮するための発生源に近い港の利用、および節約を定量化するためのTEUあたりの総燃料消費量の監視。一貫して実施した場合、サイクル全体で約5〜15％の改善が見込まれます。.

リスク管理を維持する：ロックダウンのシナリオと需要の変化を監視する。優先枠を確保するためにアライアンスと連携する。Sea-Intelligenceのダッシュボードを使用して、エンドツーエンドの可視性を維持する。兆候が変化した場合は、特に第三者のキャパシティとサプライヤーの動向に関わる、海運物流の世界全体でタイミングとコストを保護するために迅速に方向転換する。.