Navigating the U.S. Truckload Market: Path to Balance

Impact of the Pandemic on the Truckload Market

The truckload market in the United States has undergone substantial transformation after the pandemic, reflecting significant fluctuations in capacity, demand, and pricing. Following the COVID-19 crisis, the landscape was flooded with excess capacity. New carriers entered the market during the pandemic-era freight boom, while demand softened as consumer habits returned to normal.

The Oversupply Dilemma

This oversupply partly stemmed from volatile trade policies, with the rhetoric surrounding tariffs soaring in early 2025, leading to uncertainties in import patterns. As the market conditions worsened, numerous small to midsize trucking carriers struggled with unsustainable economics, causing a wave of business closures and market exits.

Cost Pressures and Carrier Exits

These exits were fueled by serious cost pressures. Publicly traded freight brokerage companies reported that “the average cost of operating a truck has surged by 34% over the past decade, while spot rates have barely budged since 2014.” For smaller carriers lacking the scale or resources to withstand prolonged downturns, this situation became increasingly untenable.

Current Market Conditions

As noted by industry experts, the truckload market has seen a relative calm, with spot rates gradually inching upwards despite disturbances caused by shifting tariff policies. This pattern has been consistent since 2023: low freight demand coupled with decreasing carrier capacity and a trend toward stabilizing rates.

Carriers Navigating a Tough Landscape

The current operating environment has been challenging for many carriers, with many of them running on unsustainable economic models. Despite witnessing brief periods of operating authority growth, the harsh conditions have forced numerous carriers to exit the industry. By mid-2025, the continuous exit of carriers has drawn the market closer to equilibrium.

Indicators Reflecting Market Balance

Indicators like the national average Outbound Tender Rejection Index—which depicts the percentage of rejected loads—showed significant shifts, climbing to 6.67% by June 2025. This increase indicates a threshold that can put inflationary pressures on spot rates. Most enterprise shippers aim for tender acceptance percentages in the high 90s, revealing that many are experiencing service level challenges.

Rate Trends in the Truckload Market

Accompanying these changes are positive trends in rates. The truckload spot rates have experienced a 9.1% year-over-year increase in the first quarter of 2025, maintaining an 11.6% growth from the previous quarter. Additionally, contractual rates recorded a raise of 1.4% year-over-year, marking the first annual increase since late 2022.

Regional Disparities in Tender Rejection Rates

A notable development in the recovering market is the emergence of considerable regional disparities. By mid-2025, tender rejection rates for truckload shipments originating in the Southeast surged past 10%, while the West Coast saw rejection rates remain below the national average.

• The Southeast’s tender volumes fell by 6% year-on-year.
• The West Coast experienced a 14% annual decline in volumes.

Shifts in Freight Transportation Patterns

The variances can partly be attributed to intermodal transportation trends. Long-haul freight demands from the West have increasingly shifted to rail, capturing a large share from the truckload sector. Despite lower import levels, loaded container volumes moving by rail out of Los Angeles remained consistent year on year.

Capacity Conditions Across Major Markets

By June 2025, cities like Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas exhibited the tightest capacity conditions among key freight centers. Notable rejection rates included:

都市	Outbound Tender Rejection Rate
Atlanta	8.89%
シカゴ	7.07%
Dallas	6.86%

Looking Ahead: Pricing Volatility and Capacity

The trajectory for truckload rates is expected to remain inflationary, with trade policy introducing potential volatility. As indicated, 2025 is still primarily a shippers’ market; however, high operational costs and a worrying number of carrier exits could contribute to future fluctuations.

Analysts suggest that if trade tensions ease as peak season approaches, more pronounced carrier exits could push rates higher. Conversely, contracts established in the mediocre market of 2024 may not hold in a tighter 2025 market, potentially rendering spot rates more profitable than contracts.

Transportation Pricing Forecast

Industry respondents anticipate transportation prices will significantly rise over the coming year. The Logistics Managers’ Index reflects a pricing outlook rating of 75, indicating optimism. Most agree that worst-case tariff scenarios are unlikely, hinting at a robust logistical recovery in 2026, provided macroeconomic factors remain stable.

結論

The U.S. truckload market has traversed a rocky road since the pandemic, transitioning from grave oversupply to a more balanced state through the tough process of carrier exits. With rising tender rejection rates and improved market conditions, the equilibrium between supply and demand is slowly restoring.

External shocks, particularly concerning trade policies, could impose vulnerabilities on the market. Nevertheless, the notable contraction in truckload capacity over the past year has enhanced market responsiveness to even minor demand shifts. As the saying goes, “Every cloud has a silver lining”—with each challenge presenting an opportunity for re-evaluation and improvement.

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