Prologis predicts U.S. warehouse vacancies will tighten and rents will rise by 2026

This article lays out Prologis’ latest view that the U.S. warehouse market is moving from cooling to tightening, with key metrics expected to improve through 2026.

Market snapshot: turnaround in warehouse fundamentals

Prologis, the San Francisco-based REIT, signaled on its quarterly call that the industrial property cycle has started to shift. Vacancy rates have likely peaked and several indicators — notably net absorption, occupancy and rents — are turning up. If you track freight and distribution trends, that’s the kind of market pivot that makes carriers and warehouse operators sit up and take notes.

Key highlights from the quarter

The company reported record lease signings in 2025 totaling 228 million square feet, with e-commerce representing about 20% of those new deals. During the fourth quarter, Prologis recorded lease starts of 43.8 million square feet, a 6% decline year-over-year, and average portfolio occupancy dipped slightly by 30 basis points to 95.3%. Yet the fourth quarter was the strongest occupancy rate of the year for the company.

Numbers at a glance

What the numbers mean for rent and income

Prologis reported strong mark-to-market dynamics. The reported net effective rent change on its multiyear leases was notable — figures in the quarter ran in the 40%+ range, and management referenced a multiyear mark-to-market opportunity estimated at roughly $800 million in additional future net operating income. The company guided 2026 core FFO to a range that brackets consensus, under assumptions of average occupancy around the mid-95% range and development starts between $3 billion and $4 billion.

Why tighter supply and stronger demand are likely

Two dynamics are at work. First, net absorption — leased space less vacated space — accelerated to 59 million square feet in Q4 and is expected to rise to 200 million square feet in 2026. Second, new deliveries are set to moderate to around 180 million square feet this year. When demand rises faster than supply, markets firm up and rents follow. Like they say, when the tide goes out, you see who’s been swimming naked — and for real estate that means weak assets get exposed while well-located, modern facilities gain pricing power.

Implications for logistics, carriers and shippers

For logistics professionals, these trends matter in very practical ways. Tightening warehouse markets push storage and handling costs higher, influence lead times for locating space, and affect decisions on inventory placement and distribution strategies.

Practical considerations

• Inventory strategy: Higher rents may encourage leaner inventory or more regional cross-dock setups to avoid long-term storage premiums.
• Network planning: With vacancies tightening, contingency sites and lease flexibility become more valuable.
• Freight routing: Changes in where goods are stored alter lane densities and carrier utilization, affecting rates and capacity.
• Construction & development: With two-thirds of Prologis’ 2026 development starts in the U.S. and 40% tied to data centers, the mix of demand is shifting — not just classic warehouse but also tech-enabled facilities.

What shippers should have on their checklist

1. Audit current lease expirations and flexibility clauses.
2. Model scenarios for higher storage rates and adjust product flows accordingly.
3. Talk to 3PLs and carriers now to lock capacity and transit windows.
4. Consider pallet pooling, consolidation, and last-mile strategies to reduce on-site footprint.

Full disclosure: one of the first logistics parks I toured felt like a beehive — everything moving, everyone with a job to do. Seeing the pace up close makes these percentage moves and absorption figures feel very tangible. The markets aren’t abstract numbers; they change how boxes flow from factory to front door.

Outlook and forecast for the logistics industry

Prologis’ forecast for 2026 — stronger net absorption and fewer new deliveries — points to a modest but meaningful tightening in U.S. warehouse markets. For global logistics, the impact will be most pronounced where the U.S. represents a large share of distribution networks or where imports transit through constrained hubs. In short: expect upward pressure on regional rents and modestly tighter capacity for high-quality space, while second-tier assets may see variable performance.

GetTransport.com, with affordable, global cargo transportation solutions and services for office and home moves, cargo deliveries, and transporting large items like furniture and vehicles, offers an easy way to adapt logistics plans when storage and distribution patterns shift. They provide flexible transport options that can help when warehousing decisions change as the market tightens.

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Highlights: Prologis recorded record lease signings in 2025, net absorption is rebounding, and deliveries are set to decline in 2026 — all pointing to tighter vacancy and rising rents. Still, even the clearest reports can’t replace firsthand experience; seeing a distribution center, running a lane test, or negotiating a lease provides the nuanced insight numbers alone can’t. On GetTransport.com, you can order your cargo transportation at the best prices globally at reasonable prices. This empowers you to make the most informed decision without unnecessary expenses or disappointments. Benefit from the convenience, affordability, and extensive choices provided by GetTransport.com, with transparent booking and logistics support. Book your Ride GetTransport.com.com

In summary, Prologis’ data suggest a turning point: net absorption is accelerating, new deliveries are easing, and vacancies should inch lower, putting upward pressure on rents. For shippers, carriers, and logistics planners that means rethinking inventory, scouting flexible warehouse options, and anticipating shifting freight patterns. Whether you’re arranging a housemove, pallet shipments, container bookings, or international freight, aligning transport and real estate strategy now will reduce surprises later. Efficient cargo, freight, shipment, delivery, transport, logistics, shipping, forwarding, dispatch, haulage, courier, distribution, moving, relocation, housemove, movers, parcel, pallet, container, bulky, international, global, reliable — keep these keywords in mind as you plan the next move and adjust your logistics playbook.