Unpacking Trailer Market Challenges and Production Outlook Under Tariff Pressures Through 2026

Trailer Demand Takes a Hit Due to Tariff Ambiguity

The trailer market in North America is bracing for a prolonged slump, with demand showing signs of weakness that experts expect will stretch across the coming year. This softness is largely attributed to the persistent uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, especially those affecting dry van trailers. Industry insiders caution that purchasing new inventory during these unstable times feels like stepping into the unknown without a safety net.

According to dealers responding to a recent survey by FTR Transportation Intelligence, inventories at dealerships have dropped to just over half of what they were a year ago. The overall inventory of trailers dwindled by 47% from the previous year, showcasing sharp reductions in various segments:

• Dry van trailers: down 55%
• Refrigerated van stock: down 32%
• Flatbed trailers: decreased by 46%

Sales have followed suit, with total trailer sales slipping 7.52% year-over-year in the second quarter, and refrigerated trailer sales taking the biggest hit, falling over 8%.

How Tariffs Are Throwing a Wrench in the Works

The situation largely stems from tariff introductions earlier in the year, which set steel and aluminum levies at 25%, later doubling those figures. Additional tariffs targeting semiconductors, copper, and fabricated components, including country-specific levies, continue to muddy the waters.

This uncertainty has created a challenging environment for everyone in the supply chain—from manufacturers uncertain about raw material costs to carriers hesitant to commit to new equipment investments they aren’t sure about financially. One industry expert remarked, the only way forward is if there’s clarity: fix a stable tariff front and the market will adjust and move on, but the ongoing ambiguity has many buyers and sellers just holding tight.

Production Outlook: Bottoming Out in Early 2026 Before Rebound

Trailer manufacturing has been exceeding demand lately, leading to diminished production goals in the near term. North American trailer production stood at 230,000 units in 2024 but is forecast to take a noticeable dip to 187,000 in 2025.

However, analysts expect recovery to kick in starting mid-2026, with production gradually climbing to 204,000 units and continuing upward to nearly 295,000 by 2028:

Year	Production Forecast
2024	230,000 trailers
2025	187,000 trailers
2026	204,000 trailers
2027	253,000 trailers
2028	295,000 trailers

Quarterly projections break down as follows: 49,000 units expected in Q3 2025, slipping to 39,000 units in Q4 2025, then climbing from 43,000 in Q1 2026 back up to 56,000 by Q4 2026.

Backlogs and Inventory: Carriers Hold Back

One significant cause of the slowdown in orders is carriers holding on to more trailers than their immediate needs require, a hangover effect from past supply disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Adding to the complexity are inconsistencies in trailer costs due to fluctuating tariffs, which leave manufacturers and buyers unsure about pricing and contract terms. The backlog-to-build ratio currently sits at 5.1 months, sitting comfortably within a typical range but trending downward.

Segment-Specific Dynamics and Resilience

While overall demand is down, not all market segments are equally affected. The vocational segments, including flatbeds, have demonstrated surprising resilience despite being under pressure. Dry vans and refrigerated vans are bearing the brunt of uncertainty and reduced order activity, reflecting cautious sentiment among carriers.

Challenges Facing Manufacturers

Executives from leading manufacturing firms note additional obstacles tied to global supply chains, as many component parts are sourced overseas. Tariffs impact these components directly, squeezing margins and complicating production forecasts. Yet, a recurring theme among industry leaders is the need for consistent policies—a stable tariff landscape would help resolve many issues, fostering confidence and enabling production plans to proceed without constant course correction.

Implications for Logistics and Freight Operations

This tariff-fueled volatility ripples across the logistics and freight landscape, affecting not just trailer production but the entire ecosystem of cargo transport and distribution. Operators face higher costs and unpredictability, which can trickle down to freight rates and scheduling.

For logistics managers and freight forwarders, this means carefully balancing shipment capacity with cost considerations, often requiring creative solutions to maintain supply chain reliability. It’s a classic case of “keeping one’s eye on the ball” during a time of economic fluctuation.

Getting Ahead with Smart Transportation Solutions

In such a fluid environment, leveraging platforms that provide a broad range of affordable and flexible transportation options can be a game-changer. Services like GetTransport.com offer a versatile solution for various cargo needs, whether relocating offices or homes, shipping bulky goods like furniture or vehicles, or arranging freight transportation across borders. Their global network and competitive pricing help businesses keep logistics running smoothly amid uncertainty.

Looking Ahead: Navigating Uncertainty with Informed Choices

The trailer market’s current state, under the cloud of tariff uncertainty, is a real test of patience for dealers, manufacturers, and carriers alike. Yet, forecasts suggest a turning point arriving in the second half of 2026 when production is expected to pick up pace again.

While statistics and expert forecasts inform the larger picture, nothing beats firsthand experience to truly grasp market dynamics. The challenge for logistics professionals and fleet operators is to stay agile and well-informed to avoid costly missteps.

By utilizing platforms like GetTransport.com, shippers gain access to transparent pricing and a wide selection of transport options, making it easier to tailor shipments to budget and timing needs. This convenience and cost-effectiveness empower smarter decisions amidst fluctuating demand and supply challenges. Book your Ride at GetTransport.com to take advantage of this flexibility.

Conclusion: A Shifting Market Calls for Reliable Logistics Partners

The trailer market’s hiccup due to tariff-related uncertainty highlights how intertwined production trends, dealer inventories, and shipment logistics are. While demand currently lags, a recovery on the horizon points to opportunities for those prepared to navigate these choppy waters.

For the logistics sector, this means a need for adaptable freight, haulage, and forwarding solutions that can handle varying cargo types—from pallets to bulky shipments, local distribution to international transport. Platforms like GetTransport.com specialize in delivering these solutions affordably and reliably, taking the stress out of moving goods efficiently.

In this landscape, aligning with a trusted carrier network that offers transparent rates and a comprehensive service portfolio will be crucial for managing deliveries, relocations, and parcel forwarding with confidence. It’s the perfect time to streamline logistics with partners who understand the ebbs and flows of global freight markets.