Trailer Order Trends in January 2026: ACT and FTR Diverge on Volume and Outlook

U.S. trailer orders for January 2026 registered a year‑over‑year increase per ACT Research—9% to 23,000 units—while FTR Transportation Intelligence reported a 4% decline to 24,206 units, illustrating the patchwork recovery and measurement differences that fleet planners must navigate.

Data Snapshot: ACT vs. FTR

Two independent trackers, ACT Research and FTR, produced slightly different pictures for the opening month of 2026. Both agree the seasonality and backlog management matter, but their year‑over‑year and sequential movements diverge enough to influence purchasing strategies.

Why the numbers differ

Methodology, timing, and the mix of product types (refrigerated vs. dry van) all drive the variance. Seasonal ordering typically peaks in late fall/early winter, then softens as manufacturers work down backlogs in January. Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research for ACT Research, notes that January is when “trailer makers begin to take fewer orders and start to work down the backlog.” In short: one firm’s data cut can catch a different slice of the same cycle.

Demand Drivers and Headwinds

Fleet behavior in late 2025 and early 2026 has been shaped by a mixture of caution and catch‑up buying. Key forces at play include:

• Freight rate volatility: Weather and regional spikes pushed spot rates up at times, prompting some urgent orders.
• Aging equipment: Several private fleets and refrigerated carriers face a clock on replacement cycles—many refrigerated units aim for a 3–4 year average life.
• Cost inflation: Higher raw material prices, especially aluminum, have stretched purchase budgets and affected pricing strategies.
• Trade and tariff pressures: Anti‑dumping petitions and tariffs complicate OEM procurement and domestic pricing.

Manufacturer and Fleet Perspectives

Steve Bennett, president and COO at Utility Trailer Manufacturing Co., observed that orders are reappearing, particularly among private fleets ordering dry vans, while many for‑hire carriers are choosing to sell used equipment instead of immediately replacing it. Bennett also emphasized material cost pressure: aluminum that cost $1.20/lb about 14 months ago rose to roughly $2.45/lb, squeezing margins.

Policy and Trade Actions

The American Trailer Manufacturers Coalition—made up of Great Dane, Stoughton Trailers and Wabash—pursued antidumping and countervailing duty remedies against imports from China, Mexico and Canada, prompting a Department of Commerce probe and a preliminary International Trade Commission injury vote. Domestic makers argue that subsidized imports threaten jobs and could tilt pricing; opponents warn trade relief risks raising costs for carriers and limiting competition.

Operational Implications for Logistics

For supply‑chain managers, the mixed signals mean two practical things: first, procurement timing matters—waiting could reduce cost pressure but increase the risk of extended lead times if demand picks up. Second, trolley‑and‑yard planning around refrigerated assets requires close attention; fleets that delay replacements may face maintenance disruptions that ripple into distribution schedules and short‑term freight capacity.

• Short term: Expect pockets of tightness in refrigerated trailers and variable lead times for dry vans.
• Medium term: If trade remedies reduce import volumes, domestic lead times could lengthen while prices normalize upward.
• Long term: Capital planning should include raw material inflation scenarios and contingency sourcing strategies.

How fleets can respond

Smart operators will blend options: stagger orders to smooth cash flow, source from multiple suppliers, and use used‑equipment markets as a temporary bridge. Remember the old trucking idiom: “You can’t haul what you don’t have.” That little truth pushes managers to balance cost discipline with ensuring available capacity.

Practical Checklist for Procurement Teams

• Audit trailer age profiles by asset type (reefer vs dry van).
• Model purchase scenarios including tariff and material cost sensitivity.
• Engage multiple OEMs and dealers early to lock production slots.
• Assess used inventory markets as short‑term capacity taps.
• Coordinate with operations to prioritize high‑margin lanes for any constrained assets.

Quick market note

Even modest order rebounds can translate into meaningful effects at a network level: fewer new trailers available for lease or purchase raises the premium for short‑term haulage and container interchange, pushing up spot rates and prompting revisions to forward planning and lane allocations.

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In summary, January 2026’s trailer order data—mixed as it is between ACT and FTR—signals a market edging toward recovery but still navigating cost, trade and demand headwinds. Fleets should plan for variable lead times, prioritize aging refrigerated units, and model procurement under different tariff and material‑cost scenarios. For logistics professionals focused on cargo, freight, shipment and delivery continuity, aligning procurement, dispatch and distribution strategies now will limit disruption. Platforms like GetTransport.com simplify the operational side by offering reliable, cost‑effective transport and forwarding options for everything from parcels and pallets to containers and bulky cargo, helping ensure your haulage, moving and relocation needs are met across international and domestic lanes.