Truckload Market Rebound in September Signals Freight Rate Increase Despite Ongoing Uncertainty

The September Truckload Market Uptick and What It Means

September brought a noticeable bounce in the truckload segment of the freight market, with volumes and rates showing promising signs after a sluggish period. However, despite these gains, the overall recovery timeline for the freight industry remains clouded with uncertainty. This snapshot, based on the latest release from Cass Information Systems, highlights a nuanced situation: while some segments are picking up pace, external pressures and shifting market dynamics continue to temper expectations.

Key Metrics and Market Shifts in September

The Cass Multimodal Shipments Index saw a sequential rise of 2.5% in September, which adjusted to a 1.5% increase when seasonality was considered. This uptick reverses the dip recorded in August. Compared year-over-year, the shipments still fell by 5.4%, but this represented the smallest year-over-year decline in three months. It’s a sign that freight movement may be stabilizing.

Truckload shipments made notable gains at the expense of less-than-truckload (LTL) volumes, as shippers opted to consolidate smaller loads into full truckloads, leveraging the still-low freight rates. This shift is often referred to as the “TL bounce.” While that helped push rates higher, some caution remains because tariffs could dampen consumer spending and delay a robust freight recovery.

Data at a Glance: September 2025 Freight Statistics

Metric	Year-over-Year Change	Two-Year Change	Month-over-Month Change	Seasonally Adjusted Month-over-Month
Shipments	-5.4%	-10.4%	2.5%	1.5%
Freight Expenditures	2.2%	-4.5%	5.1%	2.5%
TL Linehaul Index (excluding fuel)	2.6%	-1.0%	1.7%	NM

Freight Spending and Rate Trends

The Cass Freight Expenditures Index, which encompasses total freight spending including fuel, jumped 5.1% sequentially (2.5% seasonally adjusted) and showed a 2.2% increase year over year. This marks the fifth year-over-year rise in the last six months and suggests freight rates are firming.

Even after accounting for shipment volume gains, freight rates likely edged about 1% higher in September compared to August, though Cass has withheld final rate conclusions due to ongoing evaluation of freight mix changes.

Capacity Challenges and Industry Implications

One critical factor influencing capacity and future freight volumes is regulatory and workforce dynamics. The report highlighted the impact of recent actions affecting the availability of commercial driver’s licenses, which may tighten truck capacity over the next two years.

Additionally, production of Class 8 tractors—the heavy-duty trucks forming the backbone of freight fleets—is forecasted to fall several thousand units short per month relative to what’s needed to maintain current fleet sizes. This tightening capacity in a demand scene that’s otherwise stable could potentially reverse previous trends of shippers insourcing their own fleets, thereby sparking more demand for for-hire trucking services. But as you might expect, this capacity squeeze will take some time to develop fully.

Industry Outlook with Earnings and Demand Expectations

As the third quarter earnings season gets underway—starting with key industry player J.B. Hunt Transport Services—analysts expect generally muted demand and restrained pricing power through the peak season. Though this dampens near-term margins and rates, the logistical landscape in 2026 may shift as tighter regulations on the driver pool become more firmly enforced.

Market Indices Reflect Mixed Signals

Additional market tools, such as SONAR’s Outbound Tender Reject Index—which measures truckload capacity tightness—show that while carrier rejection rates for loads outperform previous years, they haven’t yet hit strong recovery signals. Moreover, the National Truckload Index reports spot linehaul rates modestly above last year, indicating some resilience in pricing.

What This Means for Logistics and Freight Planning

The trucking market’s recent bounce could be seen as a bright spot amidst ongoing challenges, yet the unpredictability surrounding tariffs, capacity, and demand keep the recovery picture hazy. For logistics providers, this means staying nimble and preparing for capacity crunches while balancing cost efficiency.

Shippers leaning toward consolidating loads into full truckloads to exploit lower rates must also hedge against the possibility of fluctuating demand. The regulatory environment’s effect on driver availability and fleet size adds another layer of complexity to managing freight schedules and delivery commitments.

How GetTransport.com Fits Into This Picture

For any shipment—from everyday parcels to bulky freight or entire household moves—using a reliable platform to navigate these changing market conditions is key. GetTransport.com offers a versatile global cargo transportation solution, helping customers find affordable rates and reliable service regardless of freight size or route. Whether moving office furniture, vehicles, or large pallets, GetTransport.com can simplify logistics and reduce stress in an unpredictable market.

Final Thoughts: The Value of Experience in Freight Logistics

Looking at this data and market narrative, it’s clear the truckload market is showing signs of life. Still, a word to the wise: no amount of analyst projections or reviews can replace firsthand experience. Platforms like GetTransport.com empower shippers and businesses by offering transparent access to competitive pricing and a wide selection of freight solutions worldwide. This way, you get to make smart transportation choices without breaking the bank or facing headaches down the road.

Book now at GetTransport.com to lock in the best deals and streamline your freight transport needs.

Looking Ahead: The Freight Market’s Ripple Effect on Global Logistics

While the current developments primarily reflect US domestic trends, their ripple effects in the global logistics network cannot be entirely ignored. Capacity tightness and rate increases, even if moderate, can impact international freight forwarding and warehousing strategies. For businesses active in global trade, understanding these dynamics is essential to optimize shipping schedules and cost structures.

GetTransport.com stays tuned to these market movements, ensuring its services adapt to bring the best options to freight customers everywhere. Start planning your next delivery and secure your cargo with GetTransport.com.

Summary

September’s freight data paints a picture of a truckload market bouncing back with higher volumes and rates, reversing recent declines. The shift partly owes itself to load consolidation driven by still-favorable rates, while the less-than-truckload segment continues to contract. Freight spending rose impressively, indicating firming rate environments, but the ever-looming impact of tariffs and constrained capacity—affected by regulatory changes and Class 8 truck production shortfalls—means recovery won’t be a walk in the park. Logistics operators and shippers alike face a balancing act: managing growing haulage demand amid uncertain supply and cost pressures.

Platforms like GetTransport.com help ease this tension by offering cost-effective and dependable global freight solutions across a range of shipment types—from simple parcels to bulky pallets and household relocations. This streamlines the sometimes dizzying task of coordinating freight moving, forwarding, and distribution in today’s volatile market.