Analyzing April’s Freight Trends on the Road to Recovery

Cass TL Linehaul Rate Index Shows Year-Over-Year Gains

In April, mixed trends characterized the freight landscape. While freight rates exhibited a year-on-year uptick, the volumes faced persistent pressure, as indicated by the latest monthly figures from Cass Information Systems. This data reveals that despite some improvements from March, the future remains uncertain.

Key Indicators of Shipping Activity

The shipments index from Cass climbed by 0.4% in April compared to March and 0.3% when adjusted seasonally. However, it still fell short by 3.6% year-on-year, marking the smallest decrease observed so far this year, following a positive reading in January 2023.

Dataset	March	April	Yearly Change
Shipments Index	—	+0.4%	-3.6%

Impact of Trade Policies on Freight Volume

Recent feedback from carriers highlights that some shippers acted preemptively, pulling forward goods before tariffs took effect in the first quarter. Conversely, others adopted a cautious stance regarding their inventory, leading to disrupted normal seasonal freight movements and creating additional uncertainty about the duration of the ongoing freight recession.

Many carriers have adjusted their forecasts for 2025, either pulling back their expectations or suspending earnings guidance altogether. This climate of uncertainty about demand continues to be a challenge. In response, carriers have focused on enhancing their cost-saving measures and optimizing equipment usage.

Future Outlook Amidst Uncertainty

The Cass report projects that the ramifications of the trade issues could result in decreased freight volumes in May and June while hinting at a possible rebound in the third quarter, owing to a recent 90-day trade agreement between the U.S. and China.

Change in Shipping Practices

In the interim, U.S. consumers are predominantly purchasing pre-tariff goods, which retailers will soon find dwindling. As expectations shift, shippers are gearing up to embrace rate increases and maintain partnerships with well-capitalized, service-focused carriers.

Landstar System’s recent first-quarter results reflect this trend, indicating that loads moved by truck were below normal seasonal averages in April, although revenue per load showed slight benefits over historical trends.

Freight Expenditures and Rate Increase

Interestingly, Cass noted that the overall freight expenditures—which encompass total spending including fuel—rose 3.3% sequentially from March to April (adjusted seasonally by 2.2%) and marked a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, the first such uptick since January 2023. This trend suggests that demand dynamics are starting to shift a bit.

<(table> Freight Expenditures March April Yearly Change Total Freight Spend — +3.3% +1.2%

Key Observations on Truckload Carries

Truckload carriers, similarly, have been benefiting from modest contractual increases even with the backdrop of a muddled volume outlook. Various reports indicated that the end of the three-year freight depression might be visible on the horizon, influencing decision-making processes and fostering a willingness among shippers to accept higher rates for consistent service from reliable providers.

Industry Dynamics and Capacity Challenges

The Cass TL linehaul index, which measures rates sans fuel and additional surcharges, dipped 0.5% from March to April but still showed a 0.9% year-over-year increase. As noted, this index has registered monthly growth throughout 2025 following declines of 3% last year and 10% in 2023.

Despite these upward trends, the report highlighted a troubling decline in publicly traded carriers’ operating margins, reaching a 15-year low amid cost pressures that modest rate increases have yet to offset adequately.

Market Resilience and Adaptive Strategies

It’s worth noting that over the past 40 months, shipment declines have marked this cycle’s trajectory. As the freight market experiences prolonged downturns, fleets are finding themselves ill-equipped to withstand further challenges. Even as expenditures turned positive for the first time in 28 months, experts caution that smooth sailing is not guaranteed.

Interestingly, most of the data utilized in forming these indexes originates from freight bills processed through Cass, which manages around $36 billion in freight payables annually for a varied clientele. This level of transactional data adds an essential layer of credibility to the findings.

Final Reflections on Freight Trends

The complexities of freight trends in April illustrate the delicate balance being maintained between rising freight rates and pressured volumes, with logistics professionals gearing up for a landscape that remains murky. Even though comprehensive analyses, insightful reports, and the honest feedback available are significant, personal experience remains paramount in understanding any logistics journey.

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