May Air Cargo Demand Up 22% Despite Trade Disruptions

Recommendation: Increase flexible capacity now to capture the 22% May air cargo demand rise, year-on-year, despite ongoing trade disruptions.

Nedávno information shows peak shipments across electronics, perishables, and pharmaceuticals, that push planning teams to tighten coordination between shippers and carriers.

Dopravcovia should align schedules with demand signals, maintain buffer capacity, and implement dynamic pricing to smooth loads across lanes that meet the profitability threshold.

Exemption options on select routes can unlock capacity, hoci only when the numbers meet the praha plánovanie must consider regulator timelines and carrier constraints.

Expertise from walsh and other analysts reinforces that the uplift is concentrated on time-sensitive nákladná doprava; building stronger collaboration with forwarders speeds loading and reduces delays.

Recent steps to translate data into results include information-driven dispatch, nedávne demand monitoring, and plánovanie cycles that keep capacity aligned with real-time data. These measures help address challenges in freight surge while balancing costs and service levels.

Dive Brief: Key takeaways on May’s 22% cargo surge and implications for shippers and carriers

Recommendation: Shippers should adjust inventory and routing mid-term to lock capacity and mitigate tariff-driven disruptions ahead. Use early bookings on asia-north and north-bound lanes, and apply the actk framework to align cost with service levels. Share targets with partners to track progress.

May’s 22% cargo surge was impressive, with year-on-year gains reflecting shifts in demand and rising yields across east corridors. Although disruptions persist, reduced port congestion in some hubs contrasts with challenges elsewhere, including hong and kongus routes, signaling a measured risk profile as markets tighten. Notes from shippers reveal a rush to reach new markets again, underscoring being watched by stakeholders.

Asia-north demand remains robust, reflecting broader shifts in share of capacity toward higher-yield lanes. For mid-term planning, keep a measured approach and avoid overexposure to any single route, especially as tariffs and disruptions evolve.

Shippers’ actions

To act mid-term, adjust inventory, lock space early, diversify port options, and share data with carriers. Use the actk dashboards to quantify yields and service levels, and communicate lead times clearly to reduce risk ahead.

Carriers’ actions

Carriers should adjust schedules to lift capacity on asia-north and east lanes, expand reach through port operations improvements, and monitor disruptions daily. Ahead of peak periods, reinforce east and north routes, and reflect notes from kongus research to stay competitive.

Dive Insight: Analyzing US De Minimis policy changes–thresholds, timing, and border clearance impact

Recommendation: With May air cargo demand up 22% despite disruptions, implement a tiered de minimis strategy that accelerates border clearance for low-value shipments by expanding real-time ctks submissions; maintain stable freighter capacity, and align with iata guidance to reduce disruptions.

Policy thresholds, timing, and border clearance mechanics

The following framework gives clarity for the year ahead to minimize risk and keep throughput predictable. A higher minimis threshold can accelerate the rise of low-value goods through faster border clearance, benefiting american shippers and their global partners. A lower threshold increases the share of shipments that must clear under ctks, potentially extending border time and pressuring rates across freighter lanes. The shift invites a balance between traditional clearance channels and expedited paths, with regional lanes in asia-north and beyond showing the strongest response to policy signals.

Operational playbook for carriers and shippers

To navigate disruptions and rising demand, establish a transparent information flow among traders and customs: share shipment data early, automate declarations in ctks, and maintain visibility into lane performance. Focus on asia-north corridors, including hong and kong hubs, to optimize freighter schedules and maintain service levels for american retailers. The kong and kongus networks can use this visibility to align capacity, protect their cost structures, and capture the share of high-frequency, low-value consignments. In the month ahead, monitor ctks times and rate trends to adjust capacity and pricing strategies accordingly.

Forwarders in Uncertainty: Roles, risk management, and collaboration strategies for US freight forwarders

Initiate a quarterly joint demand–capacity review using a unified data set that blends imports, trade indicators, and carrier performance to maintain service levels amid volatility.

Forwarders coordinate the logistics chain, linking shippers with carriers and freighters, while optimizing route choices to minimize dwell time and avoid chokepoints, even as changing freight patterns emerge.

Develop risk-management playbooks that cover scenarios such as rising demand and falling reliability in air and ocean lanes, with predefined triggers and back-up capacity across modes, as demand grew.

Create shared dashboards and mutual SLAs, supported by an actk framework and ctks data definitions, to align expectations across partners and reduce friction in daily operations.

Maintain an ongoing data loop: import daily shipping data, editor notes, and feedback from field teams to adjust front-loading decisions and keep average cycle times in check. Enrich the view with kongus feeds to sharpen forecast accuracy and map routes for both shipping and air segments.

Establish an editor council featuring voices like willie and walsh to vet risk scenarios, validate assumptions, and ensure accountability across the network. They still rely on measured results to guide decisions again.

Thus, they will benefit from clear collaboration policies: joint carrier selection, shared contingency funds, and standardized documentation that speeds approvals while preserving control over cost and service levels, helping reach customers even in disruptions.

Regional Performance: May results by region and signs for capacity, demand, and rates

Recommendation: Prioritize Asia-North and Latin routes where freight demand shows climbing signs, and lock in mid-term capacity with carrier partners to stabilize ctks and yields amid a variable environment.

• Asia-North

  In May, measured freight demand on key Asia-North corridors strengthened within the 90-day period. Capacity remained tight as kong and kongus hubs supported tighter pull-through, pushing average yields higher on popular routes. Transit times lengthened modestly, incentivizing shippers to secure capacity earlier in the period. The same pattern appeared month after month, with airlines trimming spare capacity but still meeting growing demand in peak windows. For distributors, pairing short-haul routes with longer, strategic legs can improve total transit time and ctks performance.

• Latin America and the Caribbean

  Latin markets showed resilient demand as e-commerce and perishable freight traffic recovered, aided by steady transit reliability. Yields rose on Latin routes as carriers rebalanced capacity toward high-volume legs, while ctks shifted higher in periods of elevated demand. Measured activity indicates a positive response from regional networks, with average time-in-transit improving for several routes compared with the prior period. Editor Rebecca notes the expertise of operators adapting to a growing mid-term pipeline and maintaining service levels across months.

• Europe, Middle East, and Africa

  The environment remained competitive but uneven. Capacity in Europe and the Middle East showed pockets of improvement, yet remains sensitive to weather and regulatory constraints. Some routes experienced dropped volumes in slower months, while others held steady, keeping yields largely flat-to-modest as airlines recalibrated aircraft positionings. Transit performance varied by route, with average times influenced by congestion and the need to reroute. Directors reported that response time from operators improved when regional demand rose, underscoring the value of diversified route portfolios.

Notes from the editor and regional director perspectives reinforce a consistent message: the same signs apply across markets, but timing differs by period and route. Asia-North and Latin corridors merit a deliberate, measured approach, leveraging mid-term contracts to sustain reliability and protect margins. Rebecca emphasizes maintaining flexibility with a focus on time a tranzit efficiency, while also building reserves for volatility in the environment. Across months, the average response from airlines remains solid, and the industry has seen capacity align with demand more effectively on higher-frequency routes. The overall takeaway: plan for a balanced network that can adapt to gradual demand shifts while keeping ctks and yields on a climbing trajectory.

Pricing and Rates: Hong Kong–US spot movements after tariff reductions and capacity adjustments

Recommendation: Maintain a flexible, data-driven pricing stance that uses 90-day forecasts to lock mid-term capacity ahead of peak months while adjusting surcharges and space allocations to stay ahead of disruptions and tariff shifts.

Market pulse and price trajectory

• The 90-day average HK–US spot rose by about 5% as disruptions eased and capacity adjustments took effect, becoming a benchmark for the month ahead.
• Earlier in the year, margins tightened on select lanes, but tariff reductions and de minimis thresholds supported a gradual improvement in market conditions.
• Year-on-year, rates remain down roughly 8–12% on average, with pockets of strength for american goods where policy shifts support demand.
• Markets have become sensitive to policy shifts; even as tariff reductions reduce landed costs, capacity changes by carriers in asia-north lanes keep some volatility alive.
• rebecca from iatas notes that information from field teams shows price moves aligning with inventory levels and the time of shipment, indicating that demand signals drive pricing more than a random wobble.
• Despite these shifts, the 90-day view provides a clear path for planning, allowing shippers and carriers to adapt before peaks and maintain orderly pricing ahead.
• Some weeks showed a drop in HK–US spot on lower demand, but tariff reductions and new capacity absorbed the slack.

Actionable steps for shippers and carriers

1. Shippers should lock 60–90-day HK–US volumes into contracts and deploy index-linked surcharges to align margins with spot movements, supported by 3–6 month demand signals from iatas data.
2. Adjust mix toward higher-value, time-sensitive goods to leverage premium space and protect margins as 90-day trends show gains for some lanes and flat to down on others.
3. Carriers should maintain mid-term capacity commitments and adjust pricing bands to reflect demand shifts; diversifying asia-north capacity helps minimize risk of price swings.
4. Use 90-day forecast information to plan capacity and pricing ahead of peak month; stay ahead of de minimis changes that may alter demand patterns.
5. Share clear information with customers on expected changes, including drop in some lanes and potential increases in others; transparency reduces confusion and builds trust.
6. When demand softens, consider lowering rate levels down on off-peak lanes to preserve utilization and maintain market presence.

Outlook and Policy: IATA 2026 cargo volume forecast and its implications for policy and operations

Recommendation: Establish a 90-day cycle to align capacity and rates across the most active lanes, using a shared information platform to adjust schedules, inventories, and carrier slots within the logistics network. Track demand signals and 90-day projections so teams can respond quickly and stay within budget limits.

IATA’s 2026 forecast points to a steady, mid-single-digit rise in cargo volumes from 2025, driven by persistent demand for time-sensitive goods and strong manufacturing activity. The view across regions shows lanes in Asia-Pacific and North America leading the rise, with seen momentum in intercontinental freighter and shipping patterns. Rebecca, a director at a regional carrier, notes that improved information flow among their customers and suppliers supports better planning of freighter capacity, pricing alignment, and overall service reliability.

Policy levers

To support the forecast, policy teams should push for standardized data exchange between carriers, ground handlers, and customs to reduce delays in the 90-day cycle. The following actions will help: establish a common information backbone that lets regulators, airports, and carriers monitor capacity within the network and respond with flexible slot allocation, trusted performance signals, and rapid access to clearance information for high-priority goods. Strengthening privacy-friendly data sharing helps their teams align schedules, reduce dwell times, and improve on-time performance. This reach across authorities helps reach alignment of priorities.

Operačné akcie

Operators should pre-stage capacity in the most active lanes and keep a pool of freighter aircraft near demand centers. Use measured demand inputs to adjust asset deployment, reserve slots, and cross-docking operations. Improve information flows between shippers, forwarders, and airport authorities to shorten transit times and raise reliability. The plan should include contingency options for weather, ground handling delays, and equipment faults to sustain service levels as volumes rise.