Objemy leteckej nákladnej dopravy zaznamenávajú neočávaný rast uprostred obchádzania tarief

Air Cargo Volumes Experience a 5 Percent Increase in July

In July, global air cargo volumes experienced an unexpected rise of 5 percent year-on-year. This boost has been attributed to an increasing number of shippers choosing the expediency of airfreight to navigate through existing tariffs, as revealed in the latest market analysis by Xeneta.

Market Sentiment and Tariff Talks

Despite the uptick in cargo volumes, market sentiment has not been particularly rosy due to ongoing tariff discussions. The deadline for negotiations, now set for August 7, is shrouded in uncertainty. This lack of clarity continues to loom over global trading, especially affecting the airfreight sector.

July’s Unusual Demand Patterns

Unlike the typical seasonal decreases seen in air cargo demand, July witnessed a sharp uptick, following a modest 1 percent increase in June. This surge appears to stem from a combination of factors, including frontloading related to tariffs and the urgency to expedite shipments in light of persistent uncertainty.

Cargo Capacity and Load Factor Dynamics

During July, cargo capacity grew at a slower pace of 3 percent, leading to a notable increase in the dynamic load factor, which now sits at 58 percent. This figure reflects a recovery, up from a previous 2 percent dip recorded just a month earlier. The dynamic load factor essentially measures how efficiently cargo capacity is utilized.

Insights from Niall van de Wouw

Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, noted, “Air cargo is piggybacking on the chaos caused by tariffs. While this July growth may surprise many, it’s not indicative of enhanced trade but rather how creatively companies are circumventing escalating tariff costs.”

Speed as a Critical Factor

In the current landscape, speed is crucial for companies seeking to avoid hefty tariff implications. Van de Wouw emphasized, “If you are trying to dodge tariffs, time is of the essence, and air transport significantly outpaces sea transportation, which can take up to 30 days. Many businesses find waiting for ocean containers to be far too long right now.”

Creative Strategies to Mitigate Tariffs

Moreover, businesses are continually searching for innovative strategies to sidestep or mitigate these tariffs, with the situation being likened to a game of cat and mouse between companies and the administrative bodies involved.

Fluctuations in Air Cargo Spot Rates

Despite the increasing demand for air cargo services, global air cargo spot rates saw a decline for the third consecutive month in July, dropping by 2 percent year-on-year to USD 2.55 per kg. However, a modest monthly uptick of 2 percent in July provided a slight relief to airlines, even though the mid-term forecast remains subdued.

Rate Trends and Seasonal Dynamics

The gap between seasonal rates and spot rates reflected uncertainty in the market, widening from 5 centov below the spot rates in late May to more than 20 cents by the end of July. This trend signifies a decrease in confidence over the medium term.

Potential Disruption with New Policies

Further complicating the variable air cargo landscape is the impending change in U.S. policy regarding de minimis exemption for shipments which could reshape small-parcel air trade. Since May, the exemption has been removed for shipments coming from mainland China and Hong Kong, significantly affecting low-value and e-commerce exports to the U.S.

Consequent Market Shifts

This policy change led to a reported 50 percent drop in China’s low-value exports in June, as global logistics networks react to the seismic shifts in U.S. tariff frameworks. This impending shift will primarily impact Canada, the UK, and Mexico, which make up a significant portion of the remaining volume affected.

The Impact of Chaos on Airfreight Demand

Van de Wouw suggests that the current state of chaos in international trade can actually benefit airfreight in a paradoxical manner. “In times of uncertainty and mess, especially on a global scale, airfreight tends to thrive,” he noted. “While current tariffs are strictly U.S.-facing, the overarching ambiguity is influencing far more trade lanes as companies endeavor to mitigate their financial risks.”

The Road Ahead for Air Cargo

The uncertainty around tariffs stands to keep air cargo demand buoyed in the coming months. The lack of finalized commitments and the fluctuating details surrounding these tariffs indicate that shippers may continue relying on airfreight as a means of speedy delivery amidst complex regulations.

Regional Rate Variations

Podpora zmien objemu elektronického obchodu

Ázijsko-európske trasy zaznamenali relatívne stabilné spotové sadzby, a to aj napriek takmer 90 percent nárast objemov cezhraničného elektronického obchodu z Číny do Európy. Tento posun si vyžiadal úpravu kapacít nákladných lietadiel, aby sa uspokojil robustný dopyt.

Budúcnosť leteckej nákladnej dopravy

Hoci prostredie leteckej nákladnej dopravy zostáva plné neistoty, Vander Wouw predpokladá, že toto pozadie pravdepodobne motivuje viac spoločností používať leteckú dopravu, ako by si za normálnych okolností želali. Napriek tomu varuje: „Súčasný rast, poháňaný tarifným chaosom, nemusí trvať donekonečna“ – naznačuje, že príliv dopytu by sa mohol zmeniť, keď sa vráti istota.

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