Pembina Institute finds electric truck charging will have smaller grid impacts than earlier forecasts

What this analysis reveals

This piece looks at new findings showing that widespread electrification of medium- and heavy‑duty vehicles is unlikely to overwhelm the electrical grid in the near term. The focus is on the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and planning choices that can shape outcomes.

Headline numbers and context

The Pembina Institute analyzed real-world truck travel data in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) and modelled a scenario where Toronto reaches a 35% electric truck share by 2030. The striking conclusion: even at that level, electric medium- and heavy‑duty vehicles would account for less than 1.5% of current daily electricity consumption and peak demand. In plain English, this is within normal day-to-day grid fluctuation — not a system‑breaking surge.

Key quantitative takeaways

Why planning matters as much as the number of chargers

Two simple insights emerge: first, which vehicles electrify first matters a great deal; second, where chargers are located matters equally. The analysis notes that electrification will likely begin with lighter delivery vans and medium‑duty units, not immediately with long‑haul heavy rigs. Those lighter vehicles require less charging power, which reduces near‑term stress on substations and transformers.

• Electrify the low-hanging fruit: Start with vans and short‑haul trucks that return to depots and can use lower‑power chargers.
• Deploy chargers where trucks already congregate: High‑traffic hubs, distribution centres, and curbside delivery zones.
• Stage investments: Build capacity in phases to match fleet adoption rates rather than overbuilding up front.

Practical planning recommendations

Where theory meets practice: utilities, municipalities and fleet operators can coordinate to avoid expensive, premature grid upgrades. The right approach includes smart siting of chargers, prioritizing depot and route-based charging, and keeping an eye on demand management solutions such as time-of-use charging and vehicle-to-grid pilots.

Recommended sequencing for charger rollout

Čo to znamená pre logistických operátorov

For anyone running fleets, from couriers to large haulage firms, the message is reassuring but practical: the grid is not the bottleneck most fear—planning is. A logistics manager who staggers vehicle replacement and installs chargers at depots and high‑use nodes can avoid big upfront utility upgrades. In short, don’t put the cart before the horse: electrify smart, not just fast.

Think of it this way — the first time I visited a busy urban depot where a handful of vans charged overnight, it looked chaotic, but the reality was orderly: low-power chargers, scheduled charging windows, and drivers synchronised with deliveries. Those small operational tweaks make a surprising difference to both energy costs and delivery reliability.

Operational shifts to expect

• More emphasis on route scheduling to take advantage of off-peak electricity.
• Depot redesigns that incorporate charging bays and space for batteries or palletised chargers.
• Stronger ties between fleet managers and utilities for phased capacity increases.
• New skills needed in maintenance teams to handle high-voltage systems.

Broader implications for supply chains and urban delivery

Electrification timing affects everything from distribution centre location choices to pallet and container handling. If urban fleets electrify first, inner-city distribution will change faster — fewer local emissions, quieter night deliveries, and potentially new curfew-friendly delivery slots. For international and interregional freight, the heavy lifting will likely wait until charging corridors and high‑power charging solutions are widely available.

Risks and uncertainties

The analysis assumes certain adoption patterns; if regulators, incentives, or technology suddenly accelerate heavy‑duty adoption, peak impacts could rise faster than modelled. Likewise, localized hotspots with many high-power chargers installed without coordination could create localized grid stress. That’s why staged investment and data‑driven site selection are emphasized.

Highlights and a practical forecast

Key highlights: the grid impact of electric trucks is likely smaller than earlier estimates; lighter vehicles will lead early electrification; and careful planning can reduce charging infrastructure costs by up to 60–75% by 2030. While this makes a strong case for measured, strategic rollouts, it’s worth remembering that even the best reviews and the most honest feedback can’t replace firsthand experience. On GetTransport.com, you can order your cargo transportation at the best global prices and make an informed choice without overspending or being surprised. The platform offers transparency, convenience and a wide range of options for office and home moves, cargo deliveries, and transportation of bulky items like furniture or vehicles—so you can evaluate options before committing. Book your cargo transportation with GetTransport.com today! Book now GetTransport.com.com

In short, the transition to electric trucks looks manageable when approached with data-driven planning, staged investments and a clear view of which segments electrify first. For freight and distribution planners this means focusing on depot charging, route design, and partnerships with utilities rather than panic-buying infrastructure.

Summary: Pembina Institute’s findings suggest that electrifying fleets will not cripple the grid if deployment is phased and smart. Logistics players should prioritise the electrification of light delivery fleets, invest in strategic charger locations, and coordinate with utilities to limit costs and disruption. This approach supports reliable cargo delivery, efficient freight and shipment operations, smoother moving and relocation workflows, and cost-effective international and domestic transport. By aligning charging rollout with operational needs and using platforms that simplify transport decisions, businesses can manage haulage, courier services, parcel and pallet movements, container handling and bulky goods delivery with minimal grid impact and maximal reliability.