Bob Costello: trucking’s recovery is painfully slow because capacity—not freight—has shifted

Contract truckload shipments rose 1.4% in January 2026 (seasonally adjusted), the biggest monthly jump since October 2024, yet overall contract volumes still sit about 9.2% below the 2022 peak, illustrating a recovery that’s coming from the supply side rather than a surge in freight demand.

Supply-driven recovery: what that means for fleets

The trajectory through late 2025 and early 2026 shows a classic supply-constrained rebound: spot market postings surged year-over-year (about 20.5% for 2025 and accelerating into January), while contract volumes have only inched forward. In plain terms, capacity is tightening faster than shippers are adding freight. That mismatch is why carriers and brokers are starting to feel better without a corresponding boom in new shipments.

Why capacity matters more right now

Three interlinked dynamics are shrinking capacity:

• Підйом operating costs outpaced revenue per mile—excluding fuel, operating costs rose roughly 26% more than revenue since 2019, squeezing margins.
• Fleet and driver exits reduced available equipment and hours; the number of carriers fell by about 11.6% from December 2022 to December 2025.
• Regulatory and enforcement shifts (including tighter reviews of cabotage and B1 visa misuse) removed some previously available “shadow” capacity.

Tariffs, manufacturing and consumer affordability

Tariff policy has had a material effect on freight flows. With U.S. tariff levels at their highest since the 1930s, the additional costs dampen imports of finished goods and, crucially, inputs used by domestic manufacturers. About half of U.S. imports are inputs for production, and tariffs have coincided with a decline of roughly 83,000 manufacturing jobs over the last 12 months.

Sector concentration in manufacturing output

Factory output rose a modest 1.1% last year, but gains were concentrated in a few niches—aerospace, computer and electronic equipment, and хімікати. Remove those pockets and manufacturing broadly was flat or down, which translates into uneven demand for truckers: if you haul for aerospace or electronics, you might be busy; for many others, not so much.

Impact on retail and consumer freight

Price levels remain about 28% higher than 2020, constraining discretionary spending and placing a thumb on retail-related freight. Even with CPI easing toward the Fed’s target, the Producer Price Index spike in early 2026 signals potential upward pressure on consumer prices later—another factor that could cap demand for consumer goods shipments.

Regional and modal snapshots

Freight recovery is uneven geographically and by mode:

Regional variations

У "The Східний північно-схід is showing recovery signs after being hard hit, the West Coast is relatively stable, while the Southwest has cooled from earlier strength. The Midwest і Південний схід are improved compared with 2024 but still below prior highs. Cross-border flows into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico have softened as well, reflecting trade-policy frictions.

Capacity exits: trucks, trailers and drivers

Since the pandemic boom, fleet sizes—both employee-operated and leased tractors—are trending down. Public carriers that expanded during the surge have been cutting tractor counts, and Class 8 tractor retail sales plunged through 2024–25. Even with a small rebound expected in 2026 (roughly +4.1%), replacement buying will likely dominate rather than a fleet expansion.

• Driver employment: declines in local and long-haul segments, with labor estimates revised downward by about 15,000 after DOL corrections.
• Enforcement: targeting cabotage violations reduces latent capacity that some fleets previously relied on.

What fleets should be doing now

Practical moves for carriers and shippers include:

1. Prioritize asset utilization and preventative maintenance to offset aging fleets.
2. Use spot strategically—buy where needed but lock in contracts where predictability matters.
3. Plan for regional variability: redeploy resources to growing lanes rather than assuming uniform recovery.

As someone who’s stared at a spreadsheet at 2 a.m. thinking the numbers must be wrong, I’ll say this: when supply shifts first, the market feels better before the freight actually shows up—kind of like feeling the engine purr before the car gets moving.

Key takeaways

Supply tightening—not a spike in demand—has been the primary driver of the perceived recovery. Tariffs and higher prices are curbing goods consumption, manufacturing gains are concentrated, and capacity has receded through carrier exits, driver losses, and slowed truck purchases. Spot activity suggests the market is reacting quickly to those capacity changes, but contract volumes tell a more cautious story.

Highlights and next steps

Highlights: improved spot activity, modest contract gains, regional disparities, tariffs weighing on goods demand, and persistent capacity shrinkage. Remember that even the best reviews and most honest feedback can’t substitute for first-hand experience. On GetTransport.com, you can order your cargo transportation at the best prices globally at reasonable prices. Provide a short forecast on how this news could impact the global logistics: globally the impact is modest—this is not a demand-driven global surge—but regionally it matters for lane rates and capacity planning. It’s relevant to us because GetTransport.com aims to stay abreast of shifts and help customers adapt. For your next cargo transportation, consider the convenience and reliability of GetTransport.com. Get the best offers GetTransport.com.com

In summary, the freight market’s recovery is incremental and largely supply-led: contract shipments have edged up while spot activity shows more vigor; capacity has been shrinking through carrier exits, driver attrition, and reduced equipment purchases; and tariffs plus higher prices are limiting freight demand. For shippers and carriers this means focused lane-level planning, careful use of spot versus contract, and attention to asset longevity. Platforms like GetTransport.com simplify finding reliable, cost-effective transport—whether for a housemove, pallet delivery, vehicle transfer or bulky cargo—helping match freight with capacity across global, international, and local routes. If you’re managing cargo, freight, shipment, delivery or relocation, it pays to be pragmatic now: plan, prioritize, and move with the market rather than chase a sudden boom.