Звіт про ринок морських перевезень – липень 2025 року – глобальні тенденції, тарифи та прогноз ринку

Take a proactive stance: align vessel utilization з seasonal demand; push scheduling windows into the next cycle; secure capacity before softer pricing anchors take hold.

Current dynamics point to softer utilization in west corridors, with post-holiday restocking patterns driving backlogs in select lanes; інформація From shippers shows China's throughput moderating, whilst third-country routes exhibit mixed timing that requires flexible slotting.

Protein cargo segments reveal resilience; despite softer overall demand, specialised streams in refrigerated lanes persist; meaning Scheduling becomes clear: utilization of third-country corridors takes priority; some west routes tighten capacity when Coffee Imports spike.

Strategic levers: lock in contracts ahead of price swings to minimise the effect of sudden disruptions; use seasonal capacity maps, track port congestion; maintain buffer inventory for peak weeks; the golden window lies in balancing blank sailings with fast-tracked vessel rotations, especially in China's trade lanes.

Informational dashboards persist as a baseline; meaning моніторинг інформація feeds around port dwell times, post-bank holiday ordering surges, equipment utilization metrics; despite soft impressions, the west-east ratio remains dynamic, requiring continuous reassessment to minimise risk.

Global Freight Market Insights

Recommendation: reallocate capacity to four principal corridors where volumes remain strongest; this helps stabilise routing amid varied demand; competition remains fierce. Target long-haul lanes toward Shanghai; toward Northern Europe; minimise exposure on cut-and-run routes during peak season; platooning can ease equipment utilisation; trim office costs.

Volumes shift unevenly across corridors; Shanghai volumes remain firm, yet softer versus early spring; Atlantic; Mediterranean routes show modest gains; chickpeas flow illustrates varied demand in agricultural trades; transport operators report hits to margins from tighter capacity; pricing signals reflect tightening conditions; source: internal desk; four lanes remain the most resilient; particularly the Shanghai corridor.

Platooning tests drive gains in equipment utilisation; expected modest efficiency uplift of 3–5% on routes with close transit; tighter capacity tends to ease in peak season; office planning benefits show up in scheduling accuracy; Macri policy changes may alter cost structures; competition remains stiff; caution prevails.

Seasonal shifts require agile routing; four-week forecasts align transport with volumes; Shanghai remains a focal point; chickpeas trade signals diverge by region; office teams track hits to service levels; material supply, equipment leasing react to tightening; four-path approach remains prudent.

July 2025 Rate Trends: Global averages, regional shifts, and notable surcharges

Starting this month, adopt a dual-pronged approach using both short-term visibility plus longer-term commitments; tighten tender selection; align with emergency clauses in supplier agreements; monitor signs of price pressure across key lanes.

Current pricing on most coast-to-coast corridors is experiencing mixed signals; pricing remains consistent across several lanes; transpacific lanes remain tight; transshipment hubs such as London yield ample room for negotiation; tobacco shipments on select routes heighten volatility, requiring contingency planning.

London-based pilots offer practical data on tariff discipline; golden windows for early booking emerge as capacity tightens; forecasts for next quarter point to steadier pricing on most lanes; a possible hike on peak routes if capacity remains constrained; infrastructure constraints in key hubs amplify risk; ripi indicators suggest volatility; listening loops with carriers yield clearer guidance for contract terms.

Bottom line: London serves as a testing ground for pilot initiatives; current price stability is likely on most corridors; golden opportunities arise for longer-term deals before seasonal highs; ample forecasts shape a conservative risk plan; penalties within the emergency framework become standard; a formal agreement reduces cost volatility.

Drivers of Rate Volatility: Demand surges, carrier capacity, and port congestion

Implement a dynamic routing plan to minimise exposure to port delays; diversify hubs, including Southampton; prioritise northern Europe lanes; deploy real-time visibility; stabilise expectations by controlling congestion effects on pricing.

Volume moved across core routes rose 6.3% YoY in H1 2025; record pricing hikes climbed to 14% on transatlantic corridors in Q2; port dwell times at northern hubs exceeded 4 days, tightening capacity further. Carrier capacity tightness continues; core corridors show 5.2% lower capacity year-to-date versus last year; fleet utilisation sits around 87% on average; there remains pressure to move shipments from urban terminals to hinterland by lorries; port congestion remains a drag on turn times, with dwell times rising across northern hubs to 3.8 days. Balance traditional routes; new corridors widen options.

Management teams should use a routing matrix that can translate risk into options; English-language dashboards enable cross-border coordination; licensing hurdles slow driverless trials; pursue expedited licensing where feasible; nuclear-related energy shipments occasionally cause demand spikes on specific corridors, requiring flexible capacity; historically, volumes rose with seasonality, but modern data show more erratic swings. To minimise lost volume, build additional capacity during peak windows; there is more to creating a future-safe plan; coffee meetings support rapid responses. This builds confidence among management.

Route Performance: Trans-Pacific, Europe-Asia, and other corridors compared

Starting now, offer disciplined prioritisation of Trans-Pacific lanes; Europe-Asia corridors; secure limited slots via reliable networks on a rolling basis; 40-foot ships receive priority in seasonal peaks. Make swift scheduling adjustments where operations encounter constrained times. There, careful coordination across maritime operations helps stabilise positioning during seasonal volatility; listening to experts improves preparedness for Canadian flows; Manaus shipments require sync between inland terminals; seaborne legs to avoid derailing schedules.

Trans-Pacific: on-time share 82%; transit times 9–11 days; capacity utilisation 88%; void sailings dropped 6 points; mid-October adjustments expected to further reduce dwell times at key gateways. Europe-Asia: on-time 76%; transit times 12–16 days; capacity utilisation 83%; seasonal shifts improved reliability; shipments toward Canadian ports; Wales-bound streams showing resilience; positioning improved for 40-foot units; times to move shipments shortened; Outcomes depend on timely data; take corrective steps. Results across both lanes show improvement.

Other corridors: Latin American Atlantic movements show constrained hinterland access; Manaus hinges on river transfers; seaborne networks require tighter inland coordination; mid-October actions dropped inland dwell at smaller gateways; shipments benefited from improved vessel scheduling; Canadian flows plus Wales routes benefited from diversified feeder networks; positioning across fleets improved; a shipment affected by delays highlighted the need for buffer space; offer resilient service by keeping buffers in place.

Impact on Potato Farmers: Lorry driver shortages, delivery windows, and cold chain challenges

Recommendation: lock capacity with advance bookings; pilot a dedicated carrier roster; deploy cold-chain sensors on all containers; set a 3–4 week lead time for potato shipments; take steps to recover from disruptions; align routing to Shanghai corridors, river hinterlands.

Lorry driver shortages persist along key routes; delivery windows tighten; an increase in dwell times is observed; ample capacity in regional hubs remains unreliable; Shanghai routes show 12–20% longer pickup windows during peak weeks; Nigerian exporters report longer pre-carrier lead times; Bahasa-speaking partners report communication delays; impacts on farm-to-facility activity become persistent; Russian contact lines require tighter SLAs; Chinese counterparts (китайский) must be engaged to secure bookings.

Cold-chain fragility rises; tuber spoilage risk increases with dwell times; install 5–8°C control for reefer containers; attach data loggers; set real-time alerts; align packaging standards with potato products quality specs; monitor out-of-temperature events daily.

Routing shifts: Instead, prioritise inland routes via river corridors; reduce port dwell; partner with logistics providers; fix pick-up windows; ensure free capacity is reserved for peak weeks; require continuous temperature checks; keep product traceability metrics visible to plants, distributors; align data into a single dashboard for rapid decision-making.

Fourth-quarter planning hinges on securing durable arrangements; careful risk appraisal; contracts with exporters in Nigeria; Russian teams; Bahasa-language liaison groups; formal agreement templates; ample visibility into timing milestones; stay flexible with bookings; depend on mutual performance metrics; agreement details must be finalised; project teams stay aligned.

Projected outcomes: potato quality maintained; shrinkage reduced; delivery windows met within ±2 days for top destinations; pilots cut disruption by 40% in corridor tests; costs stabilise as capacity commitments form on fixed terms; routing dynamics update to respond to demand shifts; monthly reviews keep pace with changes; status dashboards shared with all parties to maintain contact between teams.

Mitigation Playbooks for Shippers: Contracting strategies, alternative modes and inventory buffers

Recommendation: Lock core capacity via four core lanes using multi-year blocks; attach option years for flexibility; pair with price-indexed adjustments; establish transparent performance metrics to reduce exposure across chains.

Currently, exposure remains partly concentrated in Shanghai origin shipments; though routing options exist, push planning changes.

Three practical moves drive resilience in the short term:

• Core-block commitments on four primary routes; optional years for extended capacity; price-indexed adjustments to dampen energy swings; KPIs for reliability.
• Diversify origins in Shanghai; broaden European destination mix; maintain route exposure across four corridors; implement dynamic routing switches during peak cycles.
• Renegotiation windows aligned to next peak cycle; secure reopener clauses; transparency on carrier performance; greater security of supply.
• Leverage TechTarget insights; identify carriers with robust security; assign SAM governance; schedule update cycles.
• add sama governance; SCFI benchmarks; TechTarget recommendations; update frequency for performance.

Alternative modes to reduce exposure when disruptions hit port lanes:

• Rail connections along European corridors; feeder barges via Baltic routes; inland trucking for final mile; air cargo reserved for time-critical shipments; energy costs influence mode choice; Shanghai-origin loads benefit from direct connections to European hubs.
• Multi-modal routing enables a flexible response if a blockage hits a route; maintain visibility in scheduling for a post-holiday rush; leverage four-route redundancy to shorten recovery.

Inventory buffers and timing:

• Safety stock by lane; set reorder points based on lead-time variability; four-week buffer for high-demand destinations; post-holiday demand signals inform planning; update forecast regularly to recover promptly.
• Maintain exposure controls via energy hedges; planning cycles aligned with procurement; deployment of automated alerts; security controls to prevent disruption.
• add sama governance; SCFI benchmarks; TechTarget recommendations; update frequency for performance.