Publication by Participant Jeffery McCollum – Latest News and Updates

Recommendation: Secure near-term refrigerated transport capacity for rolling goods by locking in linehaul slots across primary haulage routes. Schedule temporary maintenance windows to minimise downtime and synchronise with demand signals; maintain an input feed to indicate capacity gaps above planned load.

Across March, shipper input indicates a continued uptick in load counts on refrigerated lanes, with near-term demand strongest for perishable goods. The forecast for the coming quarter points to a steady rise in transportation activity, with linehaul utilisation tightening in the West and Midwest corridors.

Operational notes: Use a rolling forecast input to indicate shifts in demand and adjust loads accordingly. If a segment becomes oversupplied, reallocate capacity to other corridors or central hubs to minimise idle time. Prioritise equipment with reefer conditioning and keep maintenance intervals tight to sustain rolling performance.

Strategic takeaway: Maintain a lean linehaul plan for the near-term and deploy flexible capacity to handle short-lived spikes without disrupting core routes. Coordinate temporary standbys for high-velocity lanes and align with seasonal march shifts to keep load movement steady across goods categories.

Across markets, document maintenance schedules and performance metrics; ensure drivers have predictable hours to sustain trucking throughput. The combined indicators from weather, port activity, and carrier input can be integrated into a concise forecast to guide stakeholder decisions on near-term shipping plans for reefer and other goods.

Jeffery McCollum ACT Research Updates: September 2025 DAT Aggregate Spot Rates Overview

Recommendation: hedge outbound exposure by locking core lanes via 7-day trucking windows; leverage flexibility to reallocate volumes when rates rise above thresholds; monitor September DAT indicators for price spikes; adjust capacity quickly to capture above-market moves.

• Outbound DAT data: September outbound rates increased to about £1.76 per mile; 4.31% higher than August; tariffs, policy points raised input costs across goods, particularly for import streams.
• Inbound rates: rose to about £2.24 per mile; up 3.8% from August; that implies a stronger inbound cost base for replenishment cycles.
• Lane performance: North Central to West Coast +5.01% YoY; South East to North East +3.71% YoY; Gulf Coast to Midwest +4.21% YoY; volumes remained robust across outbound routes.
• Market dynamics: volumes across outbound markets remained elevated; however, import demand contributed to tighter capacity in key lanes.
• Cost drivers: tariffs, policy points enacted in April raised input costs; goods supply chains faced friction; that influenced haulage decisions.
• Operational risks: court rulings on tariff policy add uncertainty; shippers seek price protection; 7-day cycles help stabilise cash flow.
• Economic backdrop: market remains weak in some segments; however, robust volumes elsewhere provide cushion; risk remains from imports; policy shifts may alter cost structures.
• mccollum commentary: mccollum notes much flexibility remains for shippers; policy changes across April produced cost shifts; market signals indicate increased outbound rates across most lanes; keep monitoring 7-day trucking cycles; summary points emphasise re-balance of volumes after tariff adjustments.
• September input signals: some inbound lanes show dropping volumes; overall, the market remains cautious yet actionable for the next month.

Summary: The September dataset confirms that the market across outbound lanes experienced increased rate pressure; however, cost containment remains possible with tactical routing; truck capacity realigns gradually, generating opportunities for shippers capable of adjusting quickly.

What September 2025 DAT Aggregate Spot Rates Mean for Shippers and Carriers

Recommendation: lock in linehaul capacity via short-term contracts; frontloading key outbound shipments when conditions permit; monitor weekly DAT signals to time rolling cycles; align with monthly forecasts to reduce uncertainty.

Reported data show September 2025 DAT Aggregate Spot Rates rose across main linehaul corridors; weekly swings reflecting broader capacity conditions; China-linked lanes showed mixed signals; outbound volumes remained stronger on several routes from key origin points across the Midwest to the West Coast; monthly averages point to increased volatility; though some lanes dropped, a subset stayed flat; overall fundamentals remained constructive for carriers facing tighter fleets.

Implications for shippers: lock in linehaul capacity with short-term contracts; frontloading key outbound shipments when conditions favour favourable pricing; diversify lane selection away from volatile routes; use monthly forecasts to plan capacity mix; reflect improving fundamentals whilst bearing uncertainty; this primarily exposes shippers to rising spot costs on core lanes, with less predictability in some markets.

Carrier stance: pricing elevated to cover input costs; align capacity with march-to-fall cycles; broaden service offers to absorb fluctuations; rely on weekly data to pace rolling capacity; monitor forecasts to bid selectively.

Summary: September 2025 demonstrates rising weekly volatility, though some lanes show dropping rates; broader market remains uncertain; recommended actions include frontloading, diversified capacity, proactive linehaul planning, monthly reviews, continuous input of forecasts. Haulage dynamics remain a critical input for pricing.

Top Drivers Behind the September 2025 Rate Shift in ACT Research

Recommendation: Align capacity and pricing with near-term signals from September postings and spot-rate trends to protect profitability amidst an oversupplied market.

The primary drivers behind the September 2025 shift include oversupplied capacity coupled with слабкий demand. A rolling expansion in fleet availability kept rates under pressure, and overall volumes і load postings moved decreased, reflecting a market that remains слабкий in several lanes. In select corridors across transport lanes, spot тарифи sharply retreated, whilst перевізник profitability stayed high for experienced fleets, illustrating how recovery prospects are unevenly distributed and market signals reflecting underlying dislocations, same dynamics as prior cycles.

У "The near-term forecast points to a slight stabilisation in some lanes, with a recovery path that remains cautious. ACT Research emphasises that rose interest in intermodal and truckload lanes may reappear as supply chains re-balance, yet the lowest bends occur in oversupplied segments where load volumes still decreased and capacity rose faster than demand. This dynamic aligns with a pattern of weakening in transport demand and a need for tighter pricing discipline.

источник: Publication data from ACT Research and postings across the network corroborate this view. The discussion around mccollum signals reinforces that stakeholders should monitor lane-by-lane shifts and maintain flexibility to navigate the current cycle.

How to Read Month-Over-Month Changes in the DAT Data

Begin by pinpointing lanes where load-to-truck ratios increased in April; rank these lanes by oversupplied signals from input capacity versus demand, then tweak operational plans accordingly.

Normalise MoM changes by baselining to a stable April figure, using DAT cycles as a frame; high gains in trucking volume rose under frontloading during pre-tariff windows.

From input data, derive profitability metrics plus operational viability for top lanes; compare load-to-truck efficiency across oversupplied lanes to signal where tightening or flexibility exists.

The publication notes high gains attributed to load retention, price skews, as well as trade shifts, with a court ruling on capacity limits providing context.

**Minutes of Meeting: Profitability Review & Capacity Planning** **Attendees:** [List of Attendees] **Date:** [Date] **1. Profitability Verification & Key Performance Indicators (KPIs):** * **Overall Profitability Status:** Confirmed achievement of [Target Percentage]% overall profitability for [Reporting Period]. Detailed breakdown by product line/service attached (Appendix A). * **Revenue vs. Expenditure Analysis:** Comprehensive review of revenue generation against operational expenditures, highlighting key areas of cost control and potential efficiency improvements. * **Gross Margin Analysis:** In-depth examination of gross margins across different market segments, identifying high-margin and low-margin areas requiring further investigation. Target: Maintain/Improve 18% GM. * **Executive Action Item:** CFO to present detailed cost optimisation plan by [Date]. **2. Identification of Tight Lanes & Bottlenecks:** * **Capacity Utilisation Review:** Analysed capacity utilisation rates across all operational areas (manufacturing, distribution, customer service, etc.). Identified key bottlenecks in [Specific Area, e.g., Order Fulfilment - West Coast]. * **Lead Time Analysis:** Evaluated lead times for key products/services. Increased lead times observed for [Specific Product/Service] due to [Specific Reason]. * **Resource Allocation Assessment:** Examined resource allocation across different departments and projects. Potential understaffing identified in [Specific Department]. * **Executive Action Item:** COO to develop and implement a bottleneck resolution plan by [Date]. **3. Capacity Adjustment Planning:** * **Demand Forecasting:** Reviewed updated demand forecasts for the next [Time Period]. Anticipated increase in demand for [Specific Product/Service] in [Specific Region]. * **Capacity Expansion Options:** Explored potential capacity expansion options, including: * Increased staffing levels * Investment in new equipment/technology * Outsourcing/contracting * **Strategic Capacity Reserve:** Recommended maintaining a [Percentage]% strategic capacity reserve to accommodate unexpected surges in demand. * **Executive Action Item:** CEO to approve capital expenditure request for [Specific Equipment/Technology] by [Date]. **4. Smaller Markets vs. Bigger Hubs: Performance Discrepancy Analysis:** * **Observed Trend:** Analysis of performance data reveals that smaller markets (e.g., [Specific Small Market]) experienced higher growth rates compared to larger hubs (e.g., [Specific Major Hub]). * **Comparative Analysis:** | Factor | Bigger Hubs | Smaller Markets | | ------------------ | --------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------- | | Market Saturation | High - Significant existing competition | Lower - Untapped potential, fewer established players | | Operating Costs | Higher (Rent, Labour) | Lower (Reduced overheads) | | Customer Acquisition Cost| Higher (Increased marketing spend) | Lower (Word-of-mouth, targeted campaigns) | | Agility | Lower (More complex processes) | Higher (Faster decision-making, adaptable strategies) | This comparison demonstrates market saturation, higher operating costs, increased competition and slower adaptation made bigger hubs less efficient and profitable than smaller more flexible markets. * **Recommendations:** * Replicate successful strategies from smaller markets in larger hubs. * Explore opportunities for market diversification to reduce reliance on major hubs. * Invest in targeted marketing campaigns for low-penetration segments in bigger hubs. * **Executive Action Item:** Head of Sales to develop a market diversification strategy by [Date]. **5. Action Items Summary:** * CFO to present detailed cost optimisation plan by [Date]. * COO to develop and implement a bottleneck resolution plan by [Date]. * CEO to approve capital expenditure request for [Specific Equipment/Technology] by [Date]. * Head of Sales to develop a market diversification strategy by [Date]. **6. Next Steps:** * Follow-up meeting scheduled for [Date] to review progress on action items. **[Name of Note Taker]** **[Title of Note Taker]**.

Maintain a quarterly view by tracking pre-tariff, tightening signals; note routes that remained flexible.

Practical Steps for Rate Negotiations Based on McCollum's Update

Kick off negotiations from a pre-tariff baseline; cite 7-day linehaul trends, monthly forecasts; reference the input index to justify a stable cost ceiling amid a weakening market.

Highlight uncertainty within supply chains; show capacity signals via linehaul shifts; isolate cost components: equipment; shipping; logistics; transportation; request monthly re-evaluations.

Position with a positive stance by presenting gains in reliability; fewer delays; faster lane transitions; keep unchanged tariffs when input costs stay flat; propose a 7-day review cycle to capture early signals of a market turn.

Data Sources, Quality, and Methodology Behind Jeffery McCollum's Interpretation

Recommendation: Ground interpretation in three convergent streams to verify cycles and separate temporary noise from longer-term shifts; rely on postings, import and trade data, and port input with year-over-year comparison for credibility.

The data backbone combines: postings from freight markets, import records, and spot indices; cross-checks with China-origin input data and outbound shipments; indicators cover goods flows, fleet activity, vessel calls, and cost trends relevant to profitability.

Quality control framework, experienced data engineers ensure duplicate removal, seasonal adjustment and selective weighting by source reliability and timeliness; cycles are tested against broader market signals and confirmed by year-on-year divergence checks; публикация records provide historical context for triangulation.

Methodology uses averaging across sources and attributed Driver framing, with outlier handling; year-on-year and spot analyses isolate drivers such as import costs, policy shifts, and lorry rates; sensitivity tests examine outbound vs inbound trade dynamics and policy impact on costs and profitability; September data points are tested for seasonal drift.

The resulting view highlights where fleets face cost pressures and where profitability is weakening or improving; the future outlook remained tied to trade policy, shipping cycles, and court rulings that influence container flows; as costs move, the balance between input costs and sales prices should guide fleet planning and risk controls.