Air Freight – Slow Improvement Not Enough to Halt the Decline

Recommendation: Secure forwarder capacity now with a reliable contract spine and build a link between shippers, airlines, and customers that prioritizes immediate reliability. Maintain a head of planning centered on a diversified route map to protect 发货 timeliness, especially for time-definite products where delays hit margins hardest.

Air freight continues to face declines as restrictions tighten and market demand remains uneven amid capacity shifts. For carriers, the head of capacity planning remains under pressure, while the headwinds push 航空 to trim schedules and re balance 发货 flows. For shippers, the immediate takeaway is to lock in capacity within trusted chunks and avoid relying on ad hoc space that may vanish during peaks.

To blunt the downturn, build a list 的 航空 with proven on-time performance and embed link visibility across the supply chain. Focus on products that move in high volumes and require predictable timing, such as electronics, perishables, and consumer goods. Engage a forwarder network that can consolidate multiple 发货 legs to reduce touchpoints and deliver reliable service to customers.

"(《世界人权宣言》) return on improved service is tangible for customers who value predictability, yet margins remain pressured by higher handling costs, fuel surcharges, and tighter capacity. 两者 shippers and carriers win when both sides align incentives through tighter SLAs, faster customs clearance, and proactive disruption alerts across the products supply chain.

Amid this slow improvement trajectory, carriers and forwarders should map a list 的 航空 with reliable on-time performance, and maintain a transparent link between capacity and demand. The head of planning must ensure both efficiency and resilience, while risk controls address potential disruptions from weather, regulatory changes, or new 限制.

Overall, a disciplined approach that emphasizes 发货 timeliness, diversifies products mix, and collaborates with forwarder networks will help the industry weather the decline. The trend continues as market demand and costs recalibrate, but a reliable network and clear execution road map keep respondents prepared for next quarter.

Why the slow rebound still fails to stop the air freight decline

Recommendation: Rebalance capacity toward high-value, time-sensitive items on core Asia-Pacific routes and secure flexible capacity to cover other economies; this combination protects cash flow and improves the return on assets.

Since late 2023, global demand growth lagged capacity gains, leaving a persistent gap across routes amid soft macro momentum. Here, the main factors and concrete actions you can take now drive (источник: IATA, 2024) better results. Having clear visibility into the forward book helps your head of network act with immediacy and avoid over-committing to fixed assets. Paint a realistic trajectory for your team with data-driven targets and a simple plan for the next month.

• Demand mix continues to shift toward high-value, time-sensitive items; to protect value, focus on shipments that yield stronger revenue per kilo and faster returns on the items you ship most often.
• Asia-Pacific routes show relative strength, but other economies lag amid slower growth; adjust your routes to balance core lanes with selective expansions to markets that offer shorter return cycles.
• Capacity gains ran behind demand in several months of the latest cycle, keeping load factors below 2019 levels and sustaining pressure on pricing across routes; monitor month-over-month changes to capture early signals and adapt quickly.
• Immediate benefits come from tightening service reliability: lock in capacity commitments for the next 6–12 months and reduce dwell times by streamlining handoffs at primary hubs.
• Footprint optimization matters: concentrate shipments through a smaller set of efficient hubs to shorten transit times, cut handling steps, and improve visibility across the network.

1. Audit your value items and map them to core hubs, prioritizing shipments that maximize value per kilo and minimize risk of delay.
2. Lock in flexible capacity on the most critical routes, especially Asia-Pacific to Europe and North America, to stabilize your return despite volatile demand.
3. Invest in real-time tracking and data sharing with partners to improve on-time performance and cut sporadic costs across the month.
4. Reshape the footprint by consolidating ad hoc loads into dependable lanes and reducing touchpoints that slow movement through busy gateways.
5. Establish stronger collaboration with customers and forwarders to align expectations, secure predictable space, and unlock immediate benefits for both sides.

Current demand vs capacity gaps limiting price recovery

A forwarder should lock in seat blocks with a reliable carrier for the next month to curb volatility and stabilize tonne-kilometres pricing, prioritizing high-yield corridors and predictable schedules.

Demand remains firm in key markets, but capacity gaps persist. In the current month, demand grew about 3–5% year over year, while available airfreight capacity sits roughly 8–12% below 2019 levels on core lanes. These gaps reflect earlier freighter retirements and reduced flight legs after lockdowns, which keep the footprint of usable space tight. The industry has pros when capacity aligns with shipment needs, and investment now can improve carrier reliability further.

On trans-Pacific and Europe-focused routes, space is concentrated in a few hubs, leaving a limited range of options for sudden shifts in direction. Most price gains are capped as carriers seek to protect margins; cheaper options exist only if customers accept longer lead times or move some volume to slower modes, affecting tonne-kilometres and overall throughput. These dynamics push cargo to more affordable alternatives, such as ocean freight for bulky goods or consolidated services. Such moves, while not ideal for every customer, help maintain flow during tighter periods and reduce time-to-market risk for goods. In practice, these things change planning assumptions and require tighter coordination across shippers, forwarders and carriers.

Action plan: invest in a two-track approach. First, invest in capacity expansion and a broader footprint by adding 2–3 high-frequency lanes to key regions; second, improve forecast accuracy through better data sharing among forwarder, shipper, and carrier partners. A mack-style planning mindset helps: keep capacity where demand is strongest and delete non-core lanes to free space for top-priority cargo. This should help volume in tonne-kilometres align with demand and support a more stable pricing environment. These steps should remain flexible to respond to shifts in lockdowns or market sentiment, and soon we expect spreads to narrow as utilization rises. Rather than chasing short-term gains, the team should pursue investment that improves the supply chain footprint and capacity responsiveness.

In practice, most players should prioritize reliable service, diversify lanes where possible, and price with a buffer to protect margins. Leveraging a broader range of options, including some near-term capacity contracts, and ship capacity in key corridors can help keep goods moving while encouraging investment in aviation assets. A month-by-month review of tonne-kilometres and goods flow will reveal where capacity gaps shrink and where liquidity in forwarder commitments should improve. These steps should limit the peak-up of rates during busy periods and lay a path toward more stable pricing as lockdowns ease and demand normalizes. The industry should remain vigilant to such disruptions and delete non-core routes to keep capacity nimble for the next month and beyond.

How fuel, handling, and security costs affect air freight economics

Implement a fuel hedging policy and route optimization to cushion price swings. Track fuel price levels to adjust hedges before spikes. In many regions, fuel costs can represent 25-40% of variable air freight expenses, with january and coming months showing the strongest volatility. Handling costs add around 6-14% per boxes on average due to packaging, equipment, and yard handling, while security charges average 1-5% of the base rate, rising in regions with stricter screening.

Develop guidelines that tie cost management to traffic patterns and conditions. in january cargo traffic surges in certain regions, so plan capacity two to four weeks ahead, reschedule to avoid peak boxes at airports, and delete redundant clearance steps where possible. This approach leads to 5-12% lower handling times on typical routes and keeps service levels stable. This is well aligned with the head of operations’ priorities.

Focus on footprint optimization: concentrate boxes at high-throughput hubs to trim handling and security spend. Choose carriers with strong security protocols that have shorter layovers. Segment markets by risk and regulatory complexity. Share information with partners to minimize re-handling and avoid duplicate checks, which shrinks the overall footprint of your network.

What to measure and how to act: rely on information from trusted источник to set actionable guidelines. Build a monthly list of KPIs: cost levels by region, freight-rate components, and service reliability. Appoint a head of logistics data to own the dashboard and ensure teams delete duplicate records. Track traffic by routes and month, particularly in markets showing coming growth, and adjust sourcing and distribution accordingly. (источник: industry report)

By combining these steps, businesses could realize cheaper options for air freight without sacrificing service quality; the pros include steadier margins and improved predictability across regions and markets. Monitor traffic conditions, keep the footprint tight, and prepare for january spikes by maintaining flexible capacity and robust information flows.

Regional signals: US, Europe, and Asia-Pacific demand trends

Recommendation: shippers should lock in regional capacity before the next peak by diversifying forwarder relationships and using real-time demand signals from freightoscom to adjust shipments region by region.

United States: demand has softened since January, with air freight volumes down about 4% year over year in the latest data. The downward trend is driven by slower consumer spending and factory cooldowns, while hazardous shipments maintain priority flow. To stay ahead, forwarders recommend time-promised lanes, tighter service level agreements, and proactive capacity planning that align with holiday and post-holiday demand swings.

Europe: demand cooled in January after a brief late-year rebound, with regional volumes down roughly 3–4% y/y and inbound capacity tightening at major hubs. Shoulders of the market now rely on mixed modes and value-added packaging to squeeze efficiency, while shippers check pricing and lead times weekly to avoid spillover costs. Such checks help maintain service while trimming unnecessary cost increases.

Asia-Pacific: this region shows the strongest momentum within the worldwide context, with January demand up modestly year over year and e-commerce-driven lanes expanding fastest. Yet volumes remain below pre-COVID-19 levels, signaling ongoing normalization rather than a full rebound. Case studies show that small, fast shipments and better packaging logistics deliver measurable gains in speed and reliability across China, Southeast Asia, and India.

Freighter capacity shifts vs belly cargo: implications for schedules

Prioritize freighter slots on high-demand lanes to stabilize schedules and reduce delay risk, while using belly cargo to cover routine legs across the industry. Apply this immediate measure on core routes and flag exceptions to avoid spillovers.

Capacity shifts have shifted significantly. Figures from june indicate worldwide freighter capacity increased by 5-12% year over year on long-haul routes, with levels crossing 20-30% on some lanes and including trunk corridors where belly capacity remained tight.

The scheduling implications are clear: more freighter capacity can tighten transit times on key routes, increasing reliability, while on some legs belly volume remains low, creating an unlikely cushion during disruptions. When a delay hits one hub, connections suffer across the network. Maintain a live list of top corridors and some such alternate paths to mitigate spillovers.

Implement a live capacity tracking system across fleets and the belly network, and run two or three scenarios weekly. Engage experienced planners to design backup corridors and maintain a list of alternate hubs. Use highly flexible slots with forwarders to lock in slots and reduce dwell times, which yields immediate progress on on-time performance.

Hazardous cargo, including chemical shipments and cylinders, demands dedicated capacity and strict handling protocols. Align these with compliance teams and schedule them on routes where risk controls are in place. Across the industry, ensuring proper packaging, labeling, and stowage reduces risk and delay while maintaining service levels.

Some planners use a ‘mack’ cadence to describe a simple, repeatable block of work that keeps freighter and belly flows aligned; this helps reduce friction on crowded lanes.

Progress toward balance remains incremental, and the same disciplined approach across operators increases resilience. Track figures such as utilization, delay causes, and equipment availability, and adjust weekly to prevent bottlenecks. For june data, expect continued gains but maintain readiness for shocks in the chemical and hazardous segments.

Strategic actions for shippers and carriers: route diversification, early bookings, and risk planning

Diversify routes now by securing three viable corridors per major lane and compare transfer times against the latest data. check with carriers for capacity windows in the next 6–8 weeks and lock in slots before the peak season to avoid last-minute delay and cost spikes.

Early bookings deliver the strongest protection: target 4–6 weeks lead time for standard lanes and 8–12 weeks for longer routes. negotiate with carriers, forwarders, and airlines to secure space, stabilize pricing, and reduce risk when conditions tighten. Build a fallback option with alternative carriers to speed response times and keep service levels high.

Develop a three-scenario risk plan (base, adverse, severe) with triggers tied to trade volumes and a cushion for capacity. Maintain a 2–4 week buffer for shipments of critical materials, and identify at least two regional suppliers in case one link encounters disruption. Arrange side-by-side routing maps to show how each scenario affects cost and time.

Implement end-to-end tracking and share information with all partners to shorten reaction times. Tracking data helps flag potential delay early, enabling proactive rerouting. Link performance dashboards to daily operations so teams see which route performs best under current conditions and can adjust send plans after disruptions.

Maintain a strong relation with freight forwarders and carriers, and use data to support mutual decisions. In rough times, keep the average delay below a target and aim to improve on prior quarters. Do not paint a rosy picture; present information grounded in numbers and trends to drive action. Align air export shipments and worldwide markets to support exporting and trade while checking the impact on costs and service levels.

Operationally nail the steps by assigning clear owners, checklists, and a 30-day cadence for reviews. Build a simple playbook that covers route diversification, booking windows, and risk scenarios. Use quick wins like consolidating shipments where possible and scheduling early send windows to capture best rates and speed. Include a simple change log to track how decisions affected times and costs.

Leverage external data, including worldacd benchmarks and trade indicators, to validate internal plans. Compare average carrier performance across lanes and times, and examine how transportations conditions worldwide evolved. The number of shipments exported per month can inform capacity planning and help businesses adjust inventory levels in times with volatility. In amid market tension, ensure information flow remains fast and reliable so managers can react before delays accumulate.

Next steps: circulate the plan to logistics teams and suppliers, publish a one-page summary, and set monthly reviews to measure improvement and below-target gaps. Use a simple KPI set: fill rate, average lead time, on-time departure, and on-time arrival. With ongoing tracking and a consistent focus on risk, you can significantly strengthen resilience worldwide and support continued exporting and trade.