Structural shifts in fleets and demand: why road freight capacity diverged between Europe and the US

Through the fourth quarter of 2025 the US road freight capacity index remained historically high while Europe’s capacity showed a steady contraction that continued into 2026, driven primarily by rapid fleet reductions, rising bankruptcies and weaker demand in 2024–H1 2025.

Snapshot: how the two markets moved apart

Transactional capacity indices reveal that both regions saw similar volatility in 2022, but the timing and persistence of the cycles differed. The US cycle led Europe by roughly four months in 2022, then maintained abundance through 2025. Europe, by contrast, trimmed fleet sizes quickly in response to margin pressure and cost inflation, producing a structural tightening that seasonal stabilisation in 2025 failed to reverse.

Why carriers reacted differently

The divergence is largely a supply-side story. European carriers faced sharply rising operational costs and eroding margins, prompting rapid fleet cuts and accelerating bankruptcies. In the US, reduction in new heavy truck registrations in 2025 signals a slowdown in fleet expansion rather than mass exits. In plain English: Europe trimmed hard and fast; the US slowed its foot off the gas.

• Europe: swift reduction in active fleets, bankruptcy wave, fewer available drivers and equipment.
• US: historically abundant capacity, recent fall in registrations suggests consolidation after years of overcapacity.
• External shocks: severe weather and seasonality caused temporary dips in both markets.

Demand, seasonality and external factors

Transport demand fell in 2024 and early 2025 across several European lanes, compounding the supply contraction. The US also saw demand growth that masked supply-side stress until registrations and carrier behavior began to show a correction. Seasonal easing is expected in the short term, but structural factors will likely dominate into 2026.

Operational implications for shippers and brokers

Those sourcing freight should take practical steps now. Tight capacity in Europe means spot rates will be less predictable, contract terms need to be more flexible, and contingency plans for distribution and last-mile are critical. In the US, organizations can still exploit favourable pricing but should watch for a continued tightening that could push rates up unexpectedly.

Tactical checklist for logistics managers

• Increase lead time for bookings on tight lanes and consider multi-carrier tenders.
• Lock in partial contracts to hedge against spot volatility while preserving flexibility.
• Invest in telematics and TMS visibility to improve asset utilisation and reduce empty miles.
• Consider intermodal options where road capacity is constrained.
• Negotiate pallet and container pooling arrangements to smooth dispatch cycles.

How this reshapes procurement and operations

Procurement teams will feel the pinch where capacity is scarce: more aggressive routing, tighter dispatch windows, and a renewed focus on carrier financial health. Carriers that survived the 2024–25 shakeout may command premium rates, especially for refrigerated, bulky or high-priority shipments. Brokers and freight forwarders who can offer reliable networks and alternative modes will be in demand.

On the technology side, telematics-driven fleet management and integrated doprava management systems will become differentiators — enabling better forecasting of available capacity, optimisation of pallet a kontejner usage, and faster re-routing during disruptions.

Outlook toward 2026: two parallel narratives

Short-term seasonality should provide a bit of breathing room, but the medium-term outlook diverges: the US is likely to see further modest declines in capacity driven by carrier reactions and a drop in new registrations, whereas Europe could face even tighter conditions if transport demand recovers faster than fleets are replenished. In practice, that means more pressure on European lanes and a continued—but slowing—advantage for shippers in the US.

From a practical standpoint, logistics teams should plan for tighter capacity windows in Europe and a gradual normalization in the US. That means blending long-term contracts with tactical spot buy capabilities, and keeping finger on the pulse via live market indices and carrier health checks.

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In short: structural fleet adjustments, bankruptcies and differing carrier behaviour have driven a clear split in road freight capacity across Europe and the US. Shippers should adapt procurement strategies, increase visibility with TMS and telematics, and consider flexible contracts to manage spot volatility. For cargo, freight and shipment planning — from parcels and pallets to bulky container or vehicle moves — using a platform that offers reliable global transport options can cut cost and uncertainty. GetTransport.com simplifies the process by connecting shippers with affordable, global transport solutions for delivery, forwarding, dispatch and moving needs, whether it’s a housemove, relocation or international haulage. The central takeaway: prepare for tighter European lanes, watch US trends for a psychological correction turning real, and use transparent tools to secure reliable transport and shipping.